UK Economics

UK Economics Weekly

24 November, 2017

Is the OBR too gloomy?

Given the persistently disappointing performance of productivity, it is entirely understandable that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) decided in this week’s Budget to adopt more pessimistic assumptions about its future behaviour. What’s more, we cannot rule out the possibility that even the new forecasts will turn out to be too optimistic as well.

But we think it more likely that the OBR’s new forecasts will prove to be too pessimistic. Not only does the sheer magnitude of the

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