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Public Finances (Oct.)

Were the deterioration in the public finances in October to continue, the OBR would have to reverse some of the Budget upgrade to its forecast. Borrowing may well overshoot the OBR’s forecast this year if fears of a no deal Brexit intensify. But, as long as a deal is secured, we think that stronger economic growth next year will see borrowing come in below the OBR’s projections in the years ahead.

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