Splitting real GDP growth into the sectors most and least sensitive to interest rates provides some tentative evidence that higher interest rates are starting to weigh a bit more heavily on real activity. We expect this influence will grow over the next six months and result in activity in the most interest rate sensitive sectors dragging the overall economy into a mild recession.
We’ll be discussing the UK inflation, growth and policy outlooks after the June CPI release on Wednesday 19th July. Register here to join that 20-minute online briefing.
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