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Retail Sales (Mar.)

  • Underlying retail sales volumes aren’t as soggy as the 0.9% m/m drop in March suggests as some of that fall was due to the unusually wet weather. The further rebound in consumer confidence in April provides a sunnier outlook and suggests that the worst of the declines in retail sales volumes are in the past. That said, we suspect that higher interest rates will still lead to a fall in real consumer spending this year.

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