Private sector production data for February, released this week, added to the evidence from other indicators that Swedish economic growth slowed sharply at the start of 2019. We think that the Rikbank will have to revise down its forecasts for the repo rate at its next meeting on the 25th April. Meanwhile, the pick-up in core inflation in Norway suggests that policymakers will stay in tightening mode, for now. However, if our forecast for oil prices to fall this year proves accurate, activity will weaken and we think that the Norges Bank will end its tightening cycle sooner than both it and investors expect.
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