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Brazil IPCA (Dec. 2020)

The larger-than-expected rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.5% y/y last month, coupled with the prospect of above-target inflation for much of 2021, will prompt an increasingly cautious stance from the central bank. But with food inflation showing signs of peaking and core inflation likely to remain subdued, we think that the Selic rate will remain low for longer than most currently anticipate.

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