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Calm before another Treasury market storm?

The absence of a further sell-off in the US Treasury market so far this year has called into question our forecast that the 10-year yield will rise by a percentage point during the remainder of 2017. Nonetheless, we continue to think that faster-than-expected Fed tightening and an unfavourable shift in the balance between demand and supply will drive the yield up to 3.5%, from around 2.5% now.

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