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Where are we in the business cycle?

Having deteriorated throughout 2018-19, the most reliable global economic indicators have stabilised recently, suggesting that the world economy is passing the worst. A range of data for the G7 show this story holds at the country level too. However, unlike the synchronised upswing of 2017, recoveries in 2020 will be slow and patchy in DMs, while they may be derailed by the coronavirus in several EMs.

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