EU elections, more weak surveys

This week saw the release of another set of underwhelming business surveys, suggesting that the pick-up in GDP growth in Q1 will not be sustained, and some further evidence that price pressures remain very weak. The stage is therefore set for a dovish statement by the ECB at its 6^th June meeting alongside the offer of generous terms on the TLTRO-III. Meanwhile, we think the main fallout from the EU parliamentary elections will be felt at the national level, notably in Italy.