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Libyan end-game to knock at least $10 off oil prices

We continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent, currently $119, to fall back to $85 by the end of the year. This forecast is based largely on persistent sluggishness in demand, a stronger dollar, and increased nervousness in financial markets. But another downside risk, which is perhaps not receiving enough attention, is that the premium for unrest in the Middle East could be about to drop sharply.

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