Oil and housing to weigh on growth
The economy is set to weather the slump in oil prices better than it did in 2015, but it will not escape unscathed. The housing market looks shaky and there are signs that higher interest rates are starting to weigh on consumer spending. Even if the Bank of Canada refrains from further rate hikes, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.0% in 2018 to 1.5% in 2019. The Bank will need to cut rates in the later stages of 2019, which should help growth to rebound to 1.7% in 2020.