US Economics Focus Can America's debt problem be solved? It's ironic that the recent government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis came at a time when America's debt situation is improving. Over the next decade, a combination of faster GDP growth and only a... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Current account deficit unlikely to re-emerge as threat Despite the recession in Europe and the slowdown in economic growth in China, the US current account deficit has continued to narrow. Our calculations suggest that in the second quarter it hit a 15... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Thinking about the new "new normal" There are reasons to believe that the recent period of sluggish economic growth and near-zero interest rates are coming to a close. While the economy's potential growth rate is probably now only... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus All you need to know about the Fed’s exit strategy The Fed’s exit strategy is a work in progress that will be determined by the economic data and the evolution of the Fed’s thinking on the costs of unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policies. But we... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Field of dreams: Is farmland the next bubble? There does appear to be a localised bubble in farmland values in the corn belt. Near-zero interest rates have undoubtedly played some role in this, but the bigger factor has been the surge in corn and... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Further dip in core inflation won't prevent trimming of QE3 Core inflation is unlikely to fall to a level that will spark concerns about deflation and prevent the Fed from slowing the pace of its monthly asset purchases later this year. This is mainly because... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus America is not drowning in debt Contrary to widespread belief, America is not broke. Our calculations suggest that total domestic net worth was as much as 550% of GDP in 2011. America is not deep in debt to foreigners either. Net... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will onshoring drive a manufacturing renaissance? The manufacturing sector has added half a million jobs over the past few years, prompting speculation that, after a decade of offshoring production to lower cost countries like China, firms are now... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus State and local governments will partly offset Federal drag State and local governments have sorted out their finances to such an extent that they will soon be in a position to raise spending and, consequently, boost both GDP and job growth. This will offset... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Rising oil and gas production to have small impact on GDP Even if US oil and gas production does continue to expand at the breakneck pace seen over the past few years, the overall impact on GDP growth will be muted. The mining sector as a whole accounted for... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Rise in confidence never looked justified The rise in consumer confidence to a five-year high in November can’t be explained by developments in equity prices, gasoline prices, the labour market or the housing market. As such, it’s no surprise... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus 2013 – make or break? 2013 could be the year in which a number of factors that have been holding back the US economic recovery are removed. This doesn’t mean the economy will soon start firing on all cylinders. But it does... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will the US ever achieve energy independence? The rebound in domestic production of both crude oil and natural gas has led to increased speculation that America could become energy independent. The US will become progressively less reliant on oil... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Vehicle sales could drive faster GDP growth Favourable pricing and financing conditions mean that the pent up demand for new vehicles created during the recession could soon be released. Such a surge in new vehicle sales has the capacity to... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Bank deleveraging behind the slump in financial flows While the net external financial surplus, which offsets the current account deficit, has remained broadly unchanged at around 3% of GDP over the past few years, the separate financial inflows and... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is America a country of part-timers? The sharp rise in the share of employees working part-time may not be as big a concern as it seems at first sight. After all, most of these extra part-timers are still working between 30 and 35 hours... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
