Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Potential loss of sports income is no issue for the SNB The possibility of the Olympics and/or the European Football Championships being cancelled as a result of the coronavirus poses downside risks to headline Swiss GDP growth this year. Nonetheless, this... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising risk to the Swiss economy from coronavirus The outsized importance of cross-border commuters to the Swiss economy means that it is particularly vulnerable to any disruption to flows of people within Europe as a result of the coronavirus... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the SNB learning to live with a stronger franc? While we suspect that the SNB has intervened to slow the rise of the franc in recent weeks, it has not prevented it from reaching a multi-year high against the euro. At the margin, an increased... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank happy to sit on the fence, for now This morning’s decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at zero percent was never in doubt. While policymakers appear happy to stay in wait-and-see mode for the time being, we suspect... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update ECB loosening set to support Danish krone The step-up in interventions by Denmark’s Nationalbank (DNB) to strengthen the krone in January puts to bed the idea that the Bank is comfortable with allowing the krone to trade in a more symmetric... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Easing cycle in Iceland has further to run This morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to resume its easing cycle came as no surprise to us following the recent fall in inflation. Given the potential for the coronavirus to... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Run of positive Swedish data buys the Riksbank time The Swedish economy appears to have stabilised in recent months, but we doubt that this will mark the start of a sustained pick-up in growth. While the Riksbank will stay in wait-and-see mode for the... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank on hold for foreseeable future This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key policy rate on hold at 1.50% was widely expected. We suspect that the Bank will leave rates on hold until 2022 though, if anything, our... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Frankenshock continues to cast a shadow on the SNB Five years after the so-called Frankenshock, the SNB is near the end of the road for conventional monetary easing. Accordingly, the Bank may be forced to make another radical policy choice if there is... 13th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What to watch for in 2020 Our big calls for 2020 are that economic growth and inflation will generally be weaker than the consensus expects, and that rates cuts are on the cards in Switzerland and Sweden. 23rd December 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank set to reverse course next year While today’s decision by the Riksbank to raise the repo rate back to zero was never really in doubt, the fact that two of the Deputy Governors opposed the move lends support to our non-consensus view... 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update CAD & NOK set to outperform in 2020 Despite a rise in oil prices over the past couple of months, the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone have underperformed most other G10 currencies. Nonetheless, we expect both to fare better next... 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB halfway through a sub-zero decade Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to leave its policy stance unchanged came as a surprise to nobody. Five years on since the Bank first cut interest rates into negative territory, there is... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland in “wait-and-see” mode After cutting rates by 150bps since April, the Central Bank of Iceland kept its deposit rate at its current record low of 3.00% today. We suspect that in the absence of a sharp and sustained fall in... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finnish PM resignation not a “game changer” While the resignation of the Finnish Prime Minister today is unlikely to lead to a collapse in government, but elections may well take place before 2023, when they are due. If so, the nationalist... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss & Swedish govt. bond yields likely to drop back We doubt that the global pick-up in government bond yields will resume anytime soon, so domestic monetary policy is likely to be the key driver of bonds in Switzerland and the Nordics. With that in... 25th November 2019 · 3 mins read
