Latin America Economics Focus What might China hold in store for Peru and Chile? With fears of a ‘hard landing’ in China receding, the economic outlook for Peru and Chile has brightened a little in recent months. As it happens, both countries appear fairly well placed to deal with... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Latin America’s hidden vulnerabilities The shift towards tighter monetary policy in the developed world combined with the drop in most commodity prices that we forecast over the next year or so threatens to expose key vulnerabilities in... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Brazil must save to invest The renewed focus of the Brazilian authorities on raising investment suggests a growing acceptance that the slump in growth over the past year or so has been driven in part by structural factors... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What can Uruguay do to bring inflation down? Contrary to popular belief, Uruguay’s stubbornly high inflation rate is partly structural in nature and not simply the result of overheated demand. Bringing inflation down permanently will require far... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Chilean consumer can’t keep driving economic growth Chilean consumer spending is growing at an unsustainable pace and needs to cool if the economy is to avoid storing up problems for the future. We expect to see a gradual moderation in spending this... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico could grow at 4% despite sluggish US economy The Mexican economy is unlikely to de-couple from the neighbouring US in an absolute sense over the coming years, but it may at least decouple on a relative basis. Whereas our forecast for US GDP... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What to expect from Brazil in 2013 Brazil’s recovery will continue in 2013 but growth is likely to be lacklustre by historic standards. Above target inflation will prevent further policy support in the first few months of the year, but... 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Are Peru and Chile losing their fiscal discipline? Chile’s economy is currently in a sweet spot between strong growth and low inflation, and we do not expect any moves in interest rates in the near term. But to the extent that rates are changed next... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How far has the inflation outlook deteriorated? As things stand, the spike in global food prices since early June is likely to push up annual inflation in Latin America by around 0.5-1.0%-pts over the next six months or so. But while this is likely... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: Has INDEC had a reality check? The most striking thing about Argentina’s Q2 GDP data is that the upward bias to growth, which has been evident in the official figures since mid-2007, seems to have eased. Even so, there are no signs... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Where is Venezuela heading after the election? A victory for Hugo Chávez in next month’s presidential election could culminate in an economic crisis in Venezuela at some point during the next six year term. By contrast, a win for the Opposition’s... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus First thoughts on the Mexican election results The dust has yet to settle on the Mexican general election and so it is probably too soon to draw any firm conclusions as to what the outcome will mean for policymaking. That said, the early signs... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus One year on, has Peru’s Humala lost his way? Ollanta Humala’s first year as Peru’s president has been a bittersweet one. While markets have warmed to the ex-army officer’s emergence as a pragmatic centrist, his poor rural support base appears to... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can Chile get rich off commodities? History indicates that it is very difficult for a country to get rich purely through the extraction of natural resources. In order to meet President Piñera’s target of becoming a developed nation... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia’s credit boom is unsustainable The Colombian credit boom appears to be unsustainable. Lending growth has been excessive, while new loans have been increasingly funded via wholesale foreign funding. We expect tighter macroeconomic... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Brazil's property boom looks like a bubble There are several reasons why we would have expected to have seen a sharp rise in Brazilian house prices over the past five years. But even so the sheer scale of the recent jump in prices is difficult... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
