Bonds Update Rising Treasury term premia and the stock-bond correlation Our base case is that Treasury term premia – and yields – rise only a little further. But we think disruptive US trade policy, among other things, poses a threat to that view and, relatedly, to... 14th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Indian rupee and equities set for further weakness A slowdown in the economy, alongside an unfavourable external environment, have contributed to declines in the Indian stock market and the rupee. We continue to expect the stock market to decline... 12th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Tariffs, the federal election, and German equities We expect equities in Germany to underperform those in other major developed markets in the coming year or so because German firms are more exposed to the increase in protectionism which appears to be... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update UK equities may underperform despite tariff insulation The UK stock market appears to be riding high – the FTSE 100 has hit a record high. But local-currency returns from UK equities have been flattered by a weaker pound. In common-currency terms, UK... 6th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update The rally in bank stocks has room to run US bank stocks in the S&P 500 have generally outperformed their peers over the past year and the key factors driving this look set to persist in 2025. So, we think they will remain around the front of... 28th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The AI rally has broadened Investors’ enthusiasm for AI appears to have supported an increasingly broad set of equities of late, even if much of the associated rise in market capitalisation remains concentrated in a few of the... 10th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for Japan’s financial markets We now think the 10-year JGB yield will rise further, the yen will make more ground against the US dollar, and Japan’s equities will struggle to make much headway (in yen terms). 2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Downbeat prospects for Latin America regardless of Trump Latin American (LatAm) markets have been generally resilient in the aftermath of the US election, possibly because investors were already pessimistic about the region’s prospects. But we think... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Our new, lower, forecasts for non-US equities Given our expectation that the Trump administration will push forward with plans to raise tariffs across the board, we have generally revised down our forecasts for stock markets outside the US. And... 21st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 13th November 2024, 3:00PM GMT Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
Japan Economics Update Yen could weigh further on the TOPIX We argued last year that the relative strength of Japan’s stock market mostly reflected the weak yen rather than a fundamental transformation of its corporate sector. Developments since then suggest... 23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rising geopolitical tensions could prick the AI bubble A further decoupling of trade ties between the US and China or a sharp rise in Cross-Strait tensions, even if a full-blown conflict is avoided, are two big geopolitical events that we think present a... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Equities Update Is this time different for China’s stock market? We’re cautiously optimistic that China’s equity market will hold on to its recent gains, and perhaps even extend upon them in the near term. But we still think its long-run prospects are poor. 4th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of the industrial heartland of the US stock market? Since mid-2022, the average stock in the industrials sector has returned more than the average stock in all other sectors of the S&P 500. This raises the question of whether investors have a rose... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China stimulus: your questions answered China’s recent stimulus announcements are still at the top of many investors’ minds, at least judging by the high level of client interest in the online briefing we ran on the topic yesterday. We’ve... 3rd October 2024 (Updated 12th October 2024) · 8 mins read
