Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) The GST holiday meant that headline inflation remained below the 2% target in January, but there is clear evidence that underlying inflation pressures are building. Given the tariff threat hanging... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Dec. 2024) The sharp decline in manufacturing sales volumes in December suggests that the earlier recovery in the sector has hit a wall. New orders rose only modestly, by 1.3%, confounding hopes that the sector... 14th February 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jan. 2025) A further strong rise in employment and tick down in the unemployment rate in January add to the sense the labour market is heating up, but earnings growth nevertheless eased back to 3.5%, from 4.0%... 7th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Dec. 2024) The surge in exports in December and recent improvement in the export order survey indicators add to the evidence that the economy was picking up momentum at the end of last year. The prospect of US... 5th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Nov. 2024) The larger-than-expected decline in GDP in November and flash estimate of only a moderate rebound in December suggest that growth was 1.6% annualised last quarter, a little lower than we and the Bank... 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jan. 2025.) With the economy doing better recently, the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut by 25bp today might have been a much closer call were it not for the looming threat of US tariffs. Any tariffs could hit... 29th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Nov. 2024) On the surface, the 0.4% decline in retail sales volumes in November looks worrying, but that fall partly reflects households delaying purchases ahead of the December GST holiday. Encouragingly... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) The small fall in headline inflation to 1.8% in December is not as encouraging as it looks, with the details suggesting that a higher proportion of the GST holiday was captured by the price surveys... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Nov. 2024) The rise in manufacturing sales in November was entirely due to higher prices, with sales volumes unchanged. While the recovery in activity took a breather, the 1.8% m/m rise in new orders and... 15th January 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Labour Force Survey (Dec. 2024) The huge gain in employment in December supports our view that labour market conditions are strengthening, despite the recent upward trend in the unemployment rate. While weakness in private sector... 10th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Nov. 2024) The third consecutive rise in export volumes in November provides further evidence that the economy was gaining momentum at the end of last year. US tariffs could cause the recovery to go into reverse... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Oct. 2024) The stronger-than-expected increase in GDP in October and upward revisions to the prior two months leaves fourth-quarter growth on track to accelerate to 2% annualised, raising the chance of the Bank... 23rd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Oct. 2024) Retail sales volumes were unchanged in October, bringing a run of strong consecutive monthly gains to an end. Moreover, the preliminary estimate that sales values were unchanged in November too... 20th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) The surprise fall in headline inflation back below the 2.0% target in November reflected steep price falls in a handful of components related to consumer goods, driven by Black Friday discounts, which... 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Oct. 2024) The upside surprises to both manufacturing and wholesale sales in October supports our view that the near-term economic outlook is now better than the Bank of Canada seems to think. It looks likely... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Dec. 2024) Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another 50bp today, the accompanying communications were more hawkish than might have been expected, with the Bank no longer indicating that further... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
