Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Apr. 2025) Manufacturing sales volumes plunged in April as the temporary boost to exports from tariff front-running unwound. Prospects for a meaningful rebound over the coming months look slim, with new orders... 13th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (May 2025) The rise in employment in May was better than expected but, paired with recent data, still shows that the labour market is struggling. We are therefore sticking to our view that the Bank of Canada... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Apr. 2025) The jump in the trade deficit to a record high in April was larger than expected as tariff front-running reversed with “Liberation Day” and Canadian exporters paused to make more of their output USMCA... 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jun. 2025.) The Bank of Canada avoided surprising markets by keeping interest rates unchanged at 2.75% today, as it continues to wait to see what the full impact of uncertain US trade policy on the economy will... 4th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q1 2025) Despite the upside surprise to first-quarter GDP growth, the contraction in domestic demand means we are sticking to our view that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again next week. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Mar 2025) The jump in motor vehicle sales in March suggests that tariff front-running has supported consumption, although the big picture is that retail sales were strong in most of the key sectors. Likewise... 23rd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Apr. 2025) The removal of the carbon tax sent energy prices tumbling in April, pushing headline inflation below the 2% target. More concerningly, the Bank’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures rose... 20th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Mar. 2025) The sharp decline in manufacturing sales volumes in March suggests the earlier boost from US tariff front-running is now reversing. A modest rise in new orders supports our view that the watered-down... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Apr. 2025) Employment would have fallen again in April were it not for the boost from the federal election, which supports our view that the Bank of Canada will resume its loosening cycle next month and... 9th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Mar. 2025) The surprise improvement in Canada’s goods trade balance in March, despite the imposition of US tariffs, was thanks to a surge in exports to other countries. Nonetheless, as the survey indicators of... 6th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Feb. 2025) Although the 0.2% m/m contraction in GDP in February was worse than expected, the preliminary estimate of a partial rebound in March should soothe fears that the economy is rapidly falling into... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Feb. 2025) The moderate decline in retail sales volumes in February was probably due to the unseasonably severe winter weather rather than the recent slump in sentiment, with the latest flash estimate implying... 25th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Apr. 2025.) The Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.75% today was not a huge surprise given recent above-target gains in core prices, concerns about future price increases and... 16th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The downward surprise to CPI inflation in March, along with the first target-consistent gains in CPI-trim and CPI-median in eight months, at the margin raise the odds of a rate cut by the Bank of... 15th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar 2025) While US tariffs will be the obvious culprit for the fall in employment in March, two-thirds of the decline was concentrated in the services sector, suggesting that other factors were at play... 4th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Feb 2025) The large fall in exports in February was to be expected given the (albeit temporary) imposition of tariffs on goods imports into the US that month. While Canada may have gotten off relatively lightly... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
