Bank of Japan Watch Inflation slowdown to increase pressure on policymakers With economic activity recovering and underlying inflation holding up, there is little immediate pressure on the Bank to step up the pace of easing. However, we still believe that price pressures will... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ still likely to step up pace of easing The renewed widening in spare capacity last quarter suggests that underlying inflation will start to moderate before long. We therefore still think that more easing will eventually be required, with... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ likely to announce more stimulus on Friday The recent rebound in underlying inflation provides a reason for the Bank of Japan to stand pat at Friday’s meeting, but not a compelling one. With the economy back in recession and the tight labour... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to step up pace of easing this month With the economy very likely now back in recession, an increase in monetary stimulus looks all but inevitable. Policymakers could announce more easing as soon as this week, but our base case remains... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Headwinds to QQE are intensifying Economic activity continues to languish, and the tight labour market has failed to generate broad-based wage gains. With renewed falls in crude oil prices undermining the Bank’s attempts to lift... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Q2 contraction to force policymakers’ hand The economy almost certainly contracted last quarter, rendering the Bank’s upbeat GDP forecasts increasingly unrealistic and denting hopes that inflation will reach 2% by next summer. Rather than... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Could the BoJ delay the 2% inflation timeframe yet again? The slowdown in economic activity in Q2 has dented hopes of an imminent strengthening of price pressure. The Bank could simply push the timeframe for hitting its 2% inflation target back yet again... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Growth deceleration to trigger more easing by October The strength of Q1 GDP seems to have vindicated the Bank of Japan’s optimistic outlook on the economy. However, we think that growth will be much slower in the rest of the year, so inflation is... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ still likely to ease before too long The Bank’s decision not to announce more stimulus at the end-April meeting will only make it more difficult to reach its 2%-inflation target, as any support from a weaker yen and rising import prices... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ could spring another surprise With economic activity sluggish and inflation slowing, we think it is a question of when rather than if the Bank will step up the pace of its asset purchases. Mr Kuroda has given no hint recently –... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to ease policy at the end of the month Recent data cast doubt on the strength of the economic recovery while inflation continues to slow. With a disappointing Shunto dashing hopes that the tight labour market would result in robust wage... 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Spacecraft QQE needs fresh fuel to reach 2% orbit The economy seems to have picked up speed since the start of the year, and the ongoing spring wage negotiations will likely end with a sizeable increase in base pay. However, inflation has continued... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to surprise markets by easing again in April The plunge in energy prices should provide a welcome fillip to economic activity, and thus strengthen price pressure in the medium term. But the more pressing concern is that lower inflation threatens... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Lower inflation expectations to require policy response The collapse in oil prices will force the Bank of Japan to tear up its inflation forecasts at the Policy Board meeting next week. It is also likely to set back efforts to lift inflation expectations... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Falling energy prices jeopardise inflation target Policymakers will have been comforted by the jump in the Nikkei and the plunge in the yen since they stepped up the pace of monetary easing at the end of October. As such, they will almost certainly... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Further easing still likely to be needed The Bank of Japan’s decision to step up the pace of asset purchases at the end-October meeting has resulted in a sharp fall in the yen, which should lift consumer prices in coming months. What’s more... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
