Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Softening domestic demand will keep RBA from hiking With inflation risks still running high, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been reluctant to drop its tightening bias. However, we still expect the Board to leave rates on hold at its upcoming August... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA won’t loosen policy before mid-2025 Following the upside surprise in the May CPI data released this week, markets are now pricing in a nearly two-in-five chance that the RBA will hand down a 25bp hike by year-end. But there are good... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Slowdown in activity not due to supply shortages Some commentators have been arguing that the recent weakness in economic activity reflects a shortfall of supply rather than weaker demand. However, business surveys suggest that supply constraints... 21st June 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will look past impact of energy rebates This week the Queensland government followed in the footsteps of the Western Australian government and the Commonwealth by announcing significantly more generous energy subsidies for households. With... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly National accounts on balance dovish The upward revisions to consumption mean that household spending has more momentum than previously thought and raise the risk that households will spend most of the income tax cuts due on 1 st July... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Reluctance to inflict pain comes back to bite the RBA We aren't convinced that the further pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in the Monthly CPI Indicator in April will be replicated in the quarterly measure that the Reserve Bank of Australia considers... 31st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weaker consumption would lift risk of earlier rate cut Whereas the Reserve Bank of Australia expects the household savings rate to rise over the course of this year, we think that households will lift real consumption alongside a likely rebound in real... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government leaves RBA to go it alone Contrary to the claims made by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, measures in the 2024/25 Budget will do little to alleviate price pressures. That means the onus of bringing inflation under control will fall... 17th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on an extended pause, budget in the spotlight Although the RBA left rates unchanged at its meeting this week, Governor Bullock stated that the Board was prepared to raise rates if it had to. Against this backdrop, there have been concerns from... 10th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Central banks won’t breathe easy just yet New Zealand's labour market was in worse shape last quarter than most had anticipated. What's more, with the economy clearly struggling, labour market slack is likely to rise further. However, with... 3rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA more likely to hike than not The case for the RBA to tighten policy is growing increasingly compelling. Underlying inflation is all but certain to overshoot its current forecast. Services inflation, which has long been a concern... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Interest rate purgatory to continue for a while Much to the RBNZ's chagrin, inflation in New Zealand continued to have a four handle last quarter. The main culprit was non-tradables inflation, which remained uncomfortably high, at 5.8%. With the... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ still on track to cut rates in August Although the RBNZ toned down its hawkish bias at its meeting this week, markets seem to be worried the Bank will take its cue from the Fed and keep rates higher for longer. However, with domestic... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Firm population growth creates quandary for the RBA The minutes of the RBA’s March meeting revealed that the Board has now dropped its tightening bias. However, we suspect it will be a while before the Bank can be confident it has broken the back of... 5th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates only in November While the data released this week confirm that Australia's economy is cooling, it is far too early for the RBA to declare victory in its fight against inflation. Indeed, underlying inflation seems to... 28th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong labour market complicates picture for RBA Although the RBA toned down its hawkish bias at its meeting on Tuesday, yesterday's frothy jobs report may well spur a reversal on that front. Indeed, the labour market appears to be holding up a lot... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
