Europe Economics Looming ECB rate hikes give SNB plenty to ponder We forecast the SNB to largely shadow ECB rate hikes over the next 18 months or so, albeit allowing the interest rate differential with the euro-zone to widen from 25bps at present to 50bps by end... 7th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics How could Europe cope without Russian energy? The EU would have a number of options to help compensate if Russian gas supplies were to be turned off, but in practice we suspect that some degree of power rationing would be needed. Past episodes of... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Pandemic-era lessons for the Swiss franc Given the uncertainty around Omicron, and the revealed preference of the SNB in recent weeks to largely stay out of the FX market, we would not be surprised to see the Swiss franc rise further against... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway going its own way The SNB and the Riksbank will leave interest rates on hold throughout 2022 and 2023 and probably beyond, but the start of rate hikes by the Norges Bank is edging ever closer. (See here.) Once the... 16th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics What can we learn from Iceland’s virus spike? The recent spike in virus cases in Iceland has raised eyebrows given the country’s high degree of vaccination coverage. Although the cause of the surge is unclear, Iceland’s experience appears to... 13th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) The slight pick-up in Swedish headline inflation in July was primarily driven by a rise in energy inflation. However, the fall in core inflation to its lowest level since 2014, means that the Riksbank... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norges Bank treading water before taking the plunge The Norges Bank is set to leave interest rates on hold at zero next Thursday (19th August), but it will almost certainly start to raise them, and tighten macroprudential policy further, in September. 12th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway Consumer Prices (Jul.) The small increase in headline CPI inflation in Norway, and the bigger decrease in the Norges Bank’s target measure, will have no bearing on the near-term outlook for monetary policy given that... 10th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Olympic productivity gains; fading boosts to Swiss CPI Norway’s Karsten Warholm had the race of his life this week, but if only it were as easy for economic policymakers to achieve the 1-2% productivity gains that the super-springy running track in Tokyo... 6th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) While inflation in Switzerland is likely to rise further in the coming months, the anticipated bout of re-opening inflation may have already passed, and the SNB will not be fazed. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Iceland’s shorter working week not a holy grail The success of reduced working hour trials in Iceland was largely founded on adopting better working practices which, if embraced elsewhere, might offer no-cost ways of achieving better work-life... 30th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden GDP Indicator (Q2) & ETI (Jul.) The 0.9% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q2 was a touch weaker than our forecast (+1.0%) but stronger than the consensus (+0.7%). While the best of the rebound in the industrial sector may be behind us... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Post-pandemic recovery phase drawing to a close As elsewhere in mainland Europe, activity in Switzerland and the Nordic economies rebounded in Q2 as services sectors re-opened and the strength of global trade has buoyed exports. Our GDP forecasts... 22nd July 2021 · 13 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics SNB not following ECB; Sweden bucks inflation trend The SNB confirmed this week that it wouldn’t be following the ECB in raising its inflation target, but that doesn’t change the big picture that it looks set to leave interest rates on hold for a very... 16th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden Consumer Prices (June) The further fall in Swedish headline inflation in June is at odds with the recent data from the US and the UK, but came as no surprise given the recent drop in electricity prices. And with non-energy... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics ECB move shifts goalposts for SNB; Löfven’s back! The ECB’s new monetary policy strategy means that the SNB is even less likely to be in a position to start raising rates in 2023, which is what investors currently expect. And it reinforces our view... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
