Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s rapid wage growth flying under the radar The slowdown that we expect in Brazil’s economy should take some steam out of the labour market, but it looks like it won’t be enough to stop wages from rising at a rapid pace. This appears to be a... 1st February 2023 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus What’s behind Brazil’s productivity problem? Brazil’s economy has a deep-seated problem of low productivity growth and it’s hard to see either presidential candidate undertaking the reforms needed to lift investment, strengthen competitive... 28th October 2022 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Brazil’s spending cap survive? The credibility of Brazil’s spending cap – the country’s key fiscal anchor – has been seriously undermined by tweaks and workarounds since the start of the pandemic. And it looks likely that the cap... 21st September 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Lula: lessons from the past While Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (better known simply as Lula), the front-runner in Brazil’s presidential race, has been vague about his policy stance, one common theme from his campaign is nostalgia... 14th September 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia election: judging the opportunities and risks Colombia’s upcoming presidential election could result in the country’s first left-wing government in recent decades, headed by Gustavo Petro. While he is unlikely to be as radical as many expect... 26th May 2022 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus A closer look at current account risks in Lat Am We expect that falls in commodity prices will cause current account positions to worsen across the region this year. While external positions will remain secure in most major Latin American economies... 4th February 2022 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus A fresh look at Brazil’s public debt problem Suggestions that Brazil’s government will raise welfare spending – and circumvent the spending cap in doing so – add to the evidence that there’s little appetite for the long-term fiscal squeeze... 20th October 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus The economic fallout from political risks in Lat Am The pandemic appears to be accelerating a political trend towards populism in Latin America. While there is a lot of uncertainty about how this might play out, it generally points towards loose fiscal... 5th August 2021 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina & the IMF: 22nd time lucky? We suspect that Argentina’s government and the IMF will thrash out a new deal, the 22nd in their history, but we doubt that this will lead to the sustained turnaround in policymaking that is needed to... 7th April 2021 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s tightening cycle likely to be sharp but short The Brazilian central bank’s 75bp hike in the Selic rate (to 2.75%) and hawkish statement point to a front-loaded tightening cycle in the coming months. We now expect a further 200bp of hikes (to 4.75... 18th March 2021 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Banxico set to tolerate higher inflation We think that the Mexican central bank’s (Banxico’s) reaction function will gradually tilt towards tolerating higher inflation. As a result, we think that interest rates in Mexico will stay low for... 14th January 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Brazil break the spending cap? Pressure for loose fiscal policy in Brazil is likely to persist and we think that the spending cap will be cast aside in the coming years. The government is already testing the water with creative... 6th October 2020 · 19 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Coronavirus deepens Argentina’s debt crisis The effects of the coronavirus will push Argentina’s economy into an even deeper recession and make the government more tempted to unilaterally halt payments on its international bonds. While we... 7th April 2020 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombian growth to slow even if oil prices recover Fears about the coronavirus have weighed on oil prices and clouded the near-term outlook for Colombia’s economy. But even if – as we expect, the virus is brought under control soon and oil prices... 24th February 2020 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: stuck in the slow lane The prevailing view that this will be the year when Brazil’s recovery finally shifts up a gear looks overly optimistic. We expect that GDP growth will come in at just 1.5% over 2020, which leaves us... 14th January 2020 · 12 mins read
