Global Economics Focus The Mar-a-Lago Accord: cutting through the chatter It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the... 25th March 2025 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Mapping China’s presence in Latin America China’s presence in Latin America is increasingly seen as a strategic threat by the US. This Focus uses interactive charts to map out economic, financial and institutional linkages between China and... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Is Argentina's economy back? And what just happened in Turkey? 1742396400 Argentina's President Javier Milei has made impressive progress in turning the economy around, but the key question now is whether these achievements can be sustained.
Latin America Economics Focus Unpacking Mexico’s ties with the US Mexico is arguably the most vulnerable economy to US trade protectionism. This in-depth analysis maps out economic and financial linkages between Mexico and its northern neighbour to provide a clearer... 15th January 2025 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Focus Trump, tariffs and global supply chains If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on... 14th January 2025 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump and the implications for global fracturing Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its... 7th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to think about tariffs In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal... 25th November 2024 · 21 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt restructurings: light at the end of the tunnel? Several EMs have reached provisional agreements with creditors to restructure their sovereign debts in recent months, including Zambia, Ukraine, Sri Lanka and Ghana. In principle, restructurings... 17th October 2024 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Elevated housing inflation to keep Banxico hawkish Housing inflation has become an increasingly important driver of core services inflation in Mexico – a key concern of the central bank, Banxico. And we think that robust household income growth and a... 13th August 2024 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The US election and EMs Under a second Trump administration, the imposition of large tariffs on China would hurts its economy but could speed up investment in manufacturing capacity elsewhere. However, a broader global... 28th June 2024 (Updated 6th November 2024) · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What Trump’s return would mean for EMs All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal... 29th April 2024 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM financial risk – An early warning system The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a... 20th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus What would Trump 2.0 mean for Mexico? The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter... 12th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Chile seize the green transition opportunity? Chile is frequently identified as one of the main beneficiaries of global efforts to put economies on a greener footing, but we doubt that the country will reap the full benefits of this trend. Chile... 6th February 2024 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: five questions for 2024 Brazil’s economy and financial markets have provided a positive surprise over the past 12-18 months. This Focus answers five key questions that will determine whether 2024 will be chalked up as a... 24th January 2024 · 15 mins read
