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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

Japan Economics Weekly

Aims to give the reader a snapshot view of both the current situation and the week ahead. It includes previews and forecasts of forthcoming events and data releases.

Sample - Strong headwinds still buffeting Japanese consumers

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Articles
Net government debt to remain stableGrowth to remain sluggish over medium termWeaker yen starts to restrain import volumesWould Grexit matter for Japan?How fast do wages have to rise to reach 2% inflation?Deflationary threat from cheaper oil far from overIs Abenomics working after all?What to make of the renewed weakening of the yen?Who benefits from the recovery in national income?Boost from net exports to fade next year
When will housing rents stop falling?Bank of Japan will have to ease more before too longShould the BoJ introduce negative interest rates?Has QQE really lifted inflation expectations?Will the use of JGBs as collateral hamper QQE?Re-shoring not as beneficial as widely thoughtDid Chinese New Year distort Japan’s activity data?Why are firms borrowing more?Shunto pay hikes still too small to lift inflation to 2%Overtime hours point to lingering job market slack
Export strength unlikely to lastElectricity prices to remain highStabilising public debt remains a daunting taskBaby boomer boost unlikely to lastCan educated women save Japan?BoJ pinning hopes on strong Shunto wage dealLimited demand boost from cheaper oilFading fiscal headwind to bolster demandHow much lower will unemployment get?What should we expect in 2015?
Lower energy prices likely to rattle policymakers“Pricing to market” not the whole storyHas Abenomics failed?Delay in sales tax hike no reason to cheerWhich sector is gaining most from the weaker yen?Strong headwinds still buffeting Japanese consumersHow much damage would a delay in the tax hike do?More monetary easing needed to offset fiscal dragIs the weaker yen doing more harm than good?Is Japan back in recession?
Tankan could deliver a positive surpriseHas the labour market turned for the worse?Will public spending really reach a record next year?Wage growth likely to slow againShould the consumption tax be raised again?How much of a threat is “hollowing out”?Weak Q2 GDP underlines case for more easingIs the recovery from the sales tax hike already over?Housing market hit hard by sales tax hikeAre tensions with China hurting exports?
Don't write off the recovery in business investmentToo soon to declare victory on inflationEnergy costs to remain high despite nuclear restartLimited growth boost from revised “third arrow”Underlying price pressure has eased dramaticallyCould a revamped GPIF lower the pension deficit?How reliable are Japan’s preliminary GDP estimates?Is Japan's fiscal position really that bad?Will the “third arrow” regain momentum?What to expect from post-tax hike data
Will corporate tax cuts boost investment?Signs of success in raising female employmentWill Japan’s exports pick up again?Can robots help offset adverse demographics?How much spare capacity is left?Is Kurodanomics working?Is Japan really investing too much?How much damage are high energy prices doing?Rising wages no guarantee of end to deflationHow vulnerable is Japan to geopolitical risks?
Competitive gains from weak yen fail to materialiseInflation likely to fall back soonMaking sense of the diverging surveysIs Japan facing a repeat of 1997-98?Strong positive momentum at start of new yearCan special zones revive the property market?“Wage surprise” more likely to be a damp squibMonetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.)Further Nikkei outperformance likelyIs the monetary arrow of Abenomics misdirected?
A look ahead to 2014One year of Abenomics – what has changed?Near-term policy catalysts few and far betweenHow sustainable is the surge in consumption?Is Japan's dual labour market such a big problem?How serious is the government about austerity?The fallout from FukushimaWhat’s causing the widening in the trade deficit?High cash levels unlikely to trigger investment boomMore FDI could significantly boost productivity
Further yen weakness and Nikkei strength aheadDeficit target unlikely to be reachedCredibility at risk despite likely consumption tax hikeWho is benefitting from Abenomics?To what extent is the weak yen pushing up inflation?Why is regular pay not picking up?Spare capacity diminishing but still largeYen weakness helps to stabilise current accountMore investment needed to maintain capital stockYen weakness is not a panacea
Tampering with the sales tax hike carries risksIs the housing market set to take off?Would consumption tax hikes derail the recovery?Households unlikely to welcome higher inflationA look ahead to the Upper House electionsTankan likely to indicate recovery gathering paceMarket forecast revisions (mostly for the better)Is 3% growth achievable?Should we now worry about the yen?Edging out of deflation
Taking stock of the recent market volatilityWas Q1’s strength really due to Abenomics?More downside for yen than upside for NikkeiIs consumer spending already taking off?Doubts lingering at the BoJFiscal stimulus? What fiscal stimulus?Should we worry about rising JGB yields?Trade deal a test of commitment to structural reformTankan likely to signal only an anaemic recoverySentiment running well ahead of hard data
A more sympathetic view of Mr. ShirakawaEuphoria grips the equity marketTwo-year inflation target would be a step too farHas the “Abe trade” run its course?Growing risk of disappointment from new-look BoJExpectations may now be too high to meetIs Japan back in recession?Will a new Governor deliver real change?Yen at risk of snap back if policy shift fails to impressSpending more just to stand still
New policies fall short of market-moving rhetoricA look ahead to 2013Priorities for the new governmentJapan's sliding infrastructure spendingMore tinkering around the edgesAll change at the Bank of Japan?The return of the LDPIs Japan’s labour market about to unravel?The effect of the consumption tax hike on growthJapan is fast approaching its own fiscal cliff
Another impotent “stimulus” packageJapan’s automakers and the importance of ChinaHow important is non-China Asia to Japan?Production tumbles further but still no end in sightHow big is Japan's business presence in China?Can Japan cope without nuclear power?How successful was the auto subsidy?Industry struggling as policy support fadesNo respite in sight for Japan's manufacturersDon’t count on extra budget to revive the recovery