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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

Japan Economics Update

Short and timely commentaries on economic or market issues and events.

Sample - BoJ sets stage for further weakening of yen

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Bank of Japan to announce more easing by end of the monthTrans-Pacific Partnership deal positive for AbenomicsWhat’s behind the rebound in “core-core” inflation?New “arrows” don’t change the outlook for Japan’s economyAre the wages data misleading us?Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.)Case for more BoJ stimulus increasingly compellingNuclear restart not a game changerMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.)Plunge in oil prices will force BoJ to step up easing
Bank of Japan likely to ease policy in OctoberNew inflation gauges do not alter the outlook for monetary policyBoJ will have to step up pace of easing before longMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.)Monetary Indicators Monitor (May)Will the government stop the yen from weakening further?Butter meltdown highlights policy failuresBank of Japan to step up pace of easing in OctoberMonetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)Should the BoJ scrap its monetary base target?
Bank of Japan will have to ease more before longWhat explains the plunge in import volumes last month?Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)Bank of Japan still likely to expand QQE later this monthRevised data show that wage growth remains anaemicMonetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.)Bank of Japan still likely to ease preemptively next monthIs Japan’s electronics sector doomed?Should we be worried about the negative saving rate?What’s behind the slowdown in Japanese FDI into China?
Cautious Bank of Japan still set to ease again in late-AprilPrice pressures building slowlyConcerns about yen unlikely to prevent more BoJ easingMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.)BoJ still likely to ease again soonGovernment eases pressure on BoJ to expand stimulusImpact of weaker yen on export volumes remains elusiveBoJ’s optimism reduces chances of near-term easingMonetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.)Benefits from Japan’s tourism boom remain limited
Fiscal policy still becoming tighter despite rising spendingDemographic headwinds are picking upLower energy prices to require more easingMonetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.)What impact is a weaker yen having on imports?Further stimulus still eventually neededWhat impact will the delay in the sales tax hike have?Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.)Talk of snap election lifts marketsCoordinated policy moves raise likelihood of sales tax hike
Asset shortage no constraint on QQEBoJ sets stage for further weakening of yenSurge in consumption tax revenue yet to comeMonetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.)Inflation still likely to moderate despite recent yen weaknessBoJ not yet ready to expand stimulusMonetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.)Imminent easing by BoJ unlikelyAre part-time workers depressing wage growth?Why are Japan’s exports (still) not picking up?
Q2's inventory surge not necessarily a sign of troubleMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.)BoJ may still have to step up pace of easingBoJ still likely to extend QQE despite upbeat inflation forecastsMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.)Third arrow unlikely to boost potential growth significantlyExternal trade (May)Rumours of QQE's end have been greatly exaggeratedMonetary Indicators Monitor (May 14)For how much longer can the BoJ buy government bonds?
July easing seems to be off the tableHow much could higher female employment boost GDP?Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.14)BoJ divisions underline case for more easingMonetary Indicators Monitor (Mar 14.)Poor consumer sentiment adds to PM Abe’s challengesExpectations of mid-year easing likely to be disappointedFiscal consolidation continues despite “record” spendingIs bank lending a reliable gauge of Japan's economy?Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.)
No great urgency for additional monetary stimulusStalling talks set back hopes for TPP as catalyst for reformBad weather unlikely to have major effect on outputBank of Japan again signals readiness to ease furtherQ4 GDP not as bad as headlines implyMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jan 14.)Falling real wages partly mitigated by rising employmentCould the market turmoil derail Japan's recovery?Nuclear shutdown not the main reason for surging trade deficitBoJ still likely to ease more as dissenting voices increase
Could local politicians block the restart of nuclear energy?Japan’s tourism resurgence won’t do much for economyUndervaluation unlikely to prevent further yen weaknessBank of Japan's caution underlines easing biasMonetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.)Talk of imminent monetary easing seems prematureHow disruptive are tensions with China?Bank of Japan likely to keep its inflation targetBank of Japan probably on hold until second half of 2014Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.)
Which indicators will be most affected by the sales tax hike?Bank of Japan in no hurry to ease furtherMonetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.)What to expect from the autumn Diet sessionNikkei set to outperform againBank of Japan still likely to ease moreConsumption tax hike leaves credibility at riskCross-border lending exposes Japanese banks to new risksMonetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.)Consumption tax strategy leaves credibility in doubt
Olympics likely to be an economic non-eventBank of Japan reiterates support for consumption tax hikesMore is needed to encourage women to workRaising the official retirement age may have little impactMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.)Options for the consumption taxCase for corporate tax cuts appears irresistibleBusiness investment turning upWhat do the Q2 GDP data mean for the consumption tax?Bank of Japan may still have to ease further
Trans-Pacific Partnership talks to test PM Abe’s resolveHard work begins after the Upper House electionsNuclear energy restart not a game changerMonetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.)Time to shift the focus to “core-core” inflation?Bank of Japan may still have more work to doConfidence in “Abenomics” still high, but waningEconomy Watchers Survey suggests recovery is slowingRising wages needed to keep up with higher pricesTankan confirms recovery on track
Small firms shrug off market volatilityMonetary Indicators Monitor (May)Surge in exports not quite as good as it looksWhat's behind the rebound in the yen?What’s holding back investment?Bank of Japan declines to panicSurveys show faith in "Abenomics" remains highVerdict on Abe speech seems harshConsumption tax hikes essential to maintain credibilityRetail sales yet to take off
Small business survey illustrates risks to recoveryBoost to Nikkei from weaker yen has run its courseBank of Japan sticks to its gunsGDP starts 2013 stronglyMonetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.)Consumer confidence falters on inflation fearsWhat’s behind the surge in JGB yields?Improving sentiment still not matched in hard dataWhat next for the yen?Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.)