Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fiscal tightening to drive growth slowdown in 2026 The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP... 15th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2025) The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut its overnight deposit rate by 100bp, to 21.00%, and we expect that policymakers will continue to loosen monetary policy over the rest of this year and into 2026 as... 2nd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi forced to step up austerity as low oil prices bite Saudi Arabia’s 2026 Pre-Budget Statement reaffirmed that the Kingdom’s recent turn to fiscal consolidation is here to stay and, in fact, will be stepped up after the budget deficit for this year is... 30th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fed and the Gulf, Saudi’s GBI inclusion, BAM meeting Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed by cutting interest rates by 25bp, but the backdrop of lower oil prices is likely to temper the impact of looser monetary policy on credit growth. Meanwhile... 18th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Regional pick up, but divergence under the surface The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP growth – outside of the post-pandemic recovery – in well over a decade over the course of 2026-27. Egypt and Morocco are emerging as... 18th September 2025 · 19 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why is inflation in Saudi Arabia so low? Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate has been remarkably soft relative to most of the emerging world in the post-pandemic era and we think it will slow further – and be weaker than most expect – over the... 14th July 2025 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE to top the Gulf growth chart another year running The UAE’s non-oil sector has seen a strong run of growth recently and we think that robust activity in tourism and retail sectors as well as solid credit growth means that non-oil GDP growth will... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA Outlook: Conflict clouds the outlook The Israel-Iran conflict creates significant uncertainty over the outlook. Our working assumption is that it eases relatively soon, in which case economic growth across the region should pick up. But... 19th June 2025 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s interest rate cuts have a lot further to go The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to cut interest rates on Thursday and we think monetary conditions will be loosened a lot further than most expect over the course of this year. That said... 22nd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA Outlook: Oil-fuelled growth to mask non-oil slowdown GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will pick up over the next couple of years supported by rising oil and LNG output from the Gulf. However, lower oil prices will result in tighter fiscal... 27th March 2025 · 20 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: Tightening cycle has much further to run While trade tensions create downside risks, we expect GDP growth to be around trend this year. And following another strong showing in this year’s spring wage negotiations, wage growth will remain... 17th March 2025 · 18 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s economy waits for the North Field boost Qatar’s economy will be stuck in the slow lane for much of 2025 as non-hydrocarbon activity slows and LNG output remains constrained. But the North Field will start to come online from Q4 and provide... 26th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Platinum set to take a narrow lead over palladium A slowdown in the adoption of EVs – along with an increasing preference for hybrids – is likely to increase demand for platinum by a bit more than for palladium over the coming years. Accordingly... 6th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Silver to outperform gold over the coming years Traditionally, our bearish view on industrial metals, informed by China’s struggling property sector, would lead us to expect weakness in silver demand and prices. But given the growing use of silver... 27th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Growth to strengthen as Gulf opens up the oil taps GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the back of higher oil production in the Gulf. The UAE will be the Gulf’s top performing economy and, elsewhere, we expect... 11th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will hike rates to 1.25% by end-2026 We now expect inflation excluding fresh food and energy to remain above the Bank of Japan’s target for most of next year as the yen remains weak for longer and the upcoming spring wage negotiations... 3rd December 2024 · 18 mins read
