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Annual Conference – London 2018

09 October, 2018
Drapers' Hall, London

What will cause the next major global downturn?

08:30 Coffee & registration.

08:55 Introduction.

Roger Bootle, Chairman

09:00 What has caused downturns in the past?

Roger Bootle, Chairman

  • Is there really a cycle at work?
  • Do downturns always start in the same place?
  • How have the drivers changed over time?

09:15 Will asset prices cause trouble again?

John Higgins, Chief Markets Economist

  • Why have asset prices caused problems in the past?
  • Where are bubbles building?
  • How would banks cope with a fall in asset prices?

09:30 Could EMs cause the next crash?

William Jackson, Chief Emerging Markets Economist

  • Where are EM vulnerabilities most acute?
  • What are the contagion risks for developed markets?
  • What would a China hard landing mean for global growth?

09:45 Will a trade war sink the global economy?

Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist

  • How much damage would a trade war inflict?
  • What are the lessons from history?
  • Which economies are most vulnerable?

10:00 Will higher interest rates trigger another downturn?

Andrew Kenningham, Chief Global Economist

  •  Is inflation about to pick up?
  • Are equilibrium interest rates set to rebound?
  • Can the world cope with tighter monetary policy?

10:15 Questions & discussion.

Chaired by Roger Bootle

10:45 Close & Coffee.

 

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