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The Capital Economics Hong Kong & Singapore Conferences 2019

04 March, 2019

Our Annual Conferences in Asia looked at “The Next Global Downturn: Causes & Consequences”. With evidence mounting that global growth has slowed, we looked at what explains the recent weakness in the major economies. We considered the outlook for monetary policy in the US, the weakness in European industry and the slowdown in global trade. A particular focus was China, which is facing both a cyclical downturn and a long-run deceleration resulting from the leadership’s rejection of market-friendly reforms. We asked what might trigger a hard landing in China. And we stepped back to ask whether the smart-money view that emerging economies will grow much faster than richer economies over the medium term is justified.

  • How severe will the downturn be in the G7?

    Shilan Shah, our Senior Economist, discusses the following:

    • What factors are weighing on growth in the US, euro-zone & Japan?
    • How will the growth outlook affect inflation and monetary policy?
    • If bolder action is required, what other ammunition do policymakers have?

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  • How bad is the outlook for China?

    Mark Williams, our Chief Asia Economist, discusses the following:

    • What is behind the slowdown?
    • Will stimulus turn it around?
    • Has the long-run outlook improved?

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  • What might trigger a hard landing in China?

    Julian Evans-Pritchard, our Senior China Economist discusses the following:

    • Is China’s debt problem under control?
    • How big are the risks in property?
    • What are the early warning signs to watch for?

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  • The global economy in 2019-20 and beyond

    Neil Shearing, our Group Chief Economist, discusses the following:

    • The global economic outlook for 2019-20.
    • The implications for financial markets.
    • The long-term prospects for global growth.

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