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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

European Economics Weekly

Aims to give the reader a snapshot view of both the current situation and the week ahead. It includes previews and forecasts of forthcoming events and data releases.

Sample - Banking sector recovery still appears fragile

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Strong growth won’t halt rise in Spain’s debt ratioStronger German recovery depends on export revivalRenewed recession adds to Greece’s woesMarket gyrations could threaten recoveryDeflation dangers have not yet liftedGreek crisis starts to restrain the recoveryWill QE spur a revival in investment?Oil and euro boosts to growth will fade next yearGreece & the ECB both have a lot more work to doEuro-zone consumers look ready to start spending
Greece still hanging by a threadNow is the euro low enough?ECB’s hopes unlikely to be metA long road still ahead for GreeceMore on the rising risk and effects of a GrexitTime is running out for GreeceGrexit risks risingMarkets still complacent on Greece’s debt challengeTwo cheers for the ECBSNB move is a heavy blow for the Swiss economy
ECB to focus on deflation, not politicsA predictably weak yearGreek crisis and falling oil price strengthen case for QEECB must deliver on QE to push euro lowerHas the euro fallen far enough?ECB divisions point to half-hearted QEThe periphery catches up – oh dearWhat will trigger ECB QE and when?Banking sector recovery still appears fragileStress tests to put spotlight on Italy and Greece
Markets and Merkel won’t let austerity slipGermany needs more stimulus for its own sakeIs the ECB already doing QE?Euro's drop doesn't let ECB off the hookLow uptake dashes ECB’s hopes for TLTROsLimited room for growth-friendly fiscal policiesECB still tiptoeing around QEWeak data increase the chance of ECB QEIs recent euro-zone weakness down to the Ukraine crisis?Stalled recovery intensifies pressure on the ECB
Mr Draghi talks down the euro, but action neededCredit conditions easing, but still very tightEuro-zone consumers still not ready to spend freelyECB edging slowly towards quantitative easingDon't bank on a German industrial resurgenceIs the euro finally about to drop?Is the euro-zone recovery over already?Weak wage growth adds to deflation risksPeripheral industry on its feet but not ready to runECB still at the back of the pack
Can the ECB weaken the euro?France's recovery to be snail-pacedGerman engine can’t power euro-zone recoveryWhat will be the ECB's next move?Beefed-up stress tests will be no quick fixThe unhelpful divergence between France and GermanyNegative rates are no silver bullet on their ownGreek debt issue doesn't end the broader crisisECB to follow words with actions before longLacklustre Q1 growth to keep the pressure on the ECB
Rebalancing to weigh on euro-zone inflation furtherIndustrial malaise could soon start to easeSlack & euro could yet force the ECB's handStars still aligned for more ECB supportSlow euro-zone recovery leaves deflation threat lurkingGDP figures don't preclude the need for ECB actionThe ECB is too sanguine about monetary problemsHow will market volatility threaten the euro-zone?Housing rebound to provide some support to recoveryIs industry defying the strong euro?
Is QE finally on the way?The pitfalls in the euro-zone’s road to recoveryDisaster averted for another year, but crisis unresolvedBanking Union progress offers little near-term reliefIs the ECB being complacent about deflation?Rating changes don't confirm convergenceExternal sector won’t drive the recoverySigns of growth convergence provide little comfortECB rate cut to provide only a little boostCredit constraints still a problem despite signs of easing
Euro-zone still on track for a grinding recoveryEuro strength threatens recovery prospectsUS shutdown underlines uncertain global backdropPeripheral labour markets are healing, but very slowlySurveys point to positive, but modest, growth in Q3Fed inaction brings the ECB respite, for nowData dent hopes of French renaissanceIs Spain staging an export-led recovery?Households back on their feet, but not yet ready to runGermany to fund more than a third Greek bail-out?
Recession over, but crisis unresolvedIndustrial upturn has weak foundationsDraghi muddies the watersThe ECB’s monetary pillar is still very weakMounting strains on the ESMOminous signs for German exportsECB still at the back of the packBanking union: progress of sortsThe periphery is still uncompetitiveWill deflation settle the ECB debate?
Is the Troika learning from its mistakes?Pressure grows on the ECB to do moreLiquidity concerns could soon deepen againRecord euro-zone recession unlikely to end hereWill the industrial recovery be sustained?Will falling inflation push the ECB into bolder action?Will less austerity rescue the euro-zone?Record trade surplus not a sign of strengthThe BoJ can’t do the ECB’s job for itIs the ECB about to unveil another bazooka?
Market calm provides limited comfortPlan B won't end Cyprus's problemsGermany likely to prevail in austerity debateIs the ECB really out of ammo?Is the crisis back?Exporters to the rescue?GDP slump underlines currency threatMariodona’s words won’t be enoughAre the green shoots of recovery emerging?Currency concerns likely to deepen
Can Germany continue to grow in 2013?ECB keeps its head in the sandEuro-zone policymakers face another demanding yearArmageddon postponedSlow progress towards banking unionThe ECB too gloomy? Not likely.Greek bail-out deal won't bring lasting calmAnother Greek sticking plasterCore's resilience unlikely to lastGreek stay of execution won’t lift the economic gloom
Firms and households still unwilling to borrowIs the core softening its stance?Can Spain really have its cake and eat it?The euro-zone’s multiplying woesIs the Greek bail-out starting to crumble?Small steps forward don't lift the uncertaintySpain's waiting game is a risky oneFurther glimmers of hopeHas the game really changed?Consumer outlook darkens
Is this the real crunch time for Greece?Core’s export resilience won’t lastAction will need to follow words before longECB ups the pressure on governmentsThree little wordsHopes of near-term policy boost fade furtherWeaker currency won’t bail out the euro-zoneIs the ECB out of ammo?Sensible changes, but no big cureBail-out talks are the next key hurdle for Greece