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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

European Economics Weekly

Aims to give the reader a snapshot view of both the current situation and the week ahead. It includes previews and forecasts of forthcoming events and data releases.

Sample - Plan B won't end Cyprus's problems

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Negative rates are no silver bullet on their ownGreek debt issue doesn't end the broader crisisECB to follow words with actions before longLacklustre Q1 growth to keep the pressure on the ECBRebalancing to weigh on euro-zone inflation furtherIndustrial malaise could soon start to easeSlack & euro could yet force the ECB's handStars still aligned for more ECB supportSlow euro-zone recovery leaves deflation threat lurkingGDP figures don't preclude the need for ECB action
The ECB is too sanguine about monetary problemsHow will market volatility threaten the euro-zone?Housing rebound to provide some support to recoveryIs industry defying the strong euro?Is QE finally on the way?The pitfalls in the euro-zone’s road to recoveryDisaster averted for another year, but crisis unresolvedBanking Union progress offers little near-term reliefIs the ECB being complacent about deflation?Rating changes don't confirm convergence
External sector won’t drive the recoverySigns of growth convergence provide little comfortECB rate cut to provide only a little boostCredit constraints still a problem despite signs of easingEuro-zone still on track for a grinding recoveryEuro strength threatens recovery prospectsUS shutdown underlines uncertain global backdropPeripheral labour markets are healing, but very slowlySurveys point to positive, but modest, growth in Q3Fed inaction brings the ECB respite, for now
Data dent hopes of French renaissanceIs Spain staging an export-led recovery?Households back on their feet, but not yet ready to runGermany to fund more than a third Greek bail-out?Recession over, but crisis unresolvedIndustrial upturn has weak foundationsDraghi muddies the watersThe ECB’s monetary pillar is still very weakMounting strains on the ESMOminous signs for German exports
ECB still at the back of the packBanking union: progress of sortsThe periphery is still uncompetitiveWill deflation settle the ECB debate?Is the Troika learning from its mistakes?Pressure grows on the ECB to do moreLiquidity concerns could soon deepen againRecord euro-zone recession unlikely to end hereWill the industrial recovery be sustained?Will falling inflation push the ECB into bolder action?
Will less austerity rescue the euro-zone?Record trade surplus not a sign of strengthThe BoJ can’t do the ECB’s job for itIs the ECB about to unveil another bazooka?Market calm provides limited comfortPlan B won't end Cyprus's problemsGermany likely to prevail in austerity debateIs the ECB really out of ammo?Is the crisis back?Exporters to the rescue?
GDP slump underlines currency threatMariodona’s words won’t be enoughAre the green shoots of recovery emerging?Currency concerns likely to deepenCan Germany continue to grow in 2013?ECB keeps its head in the sandEuro-zone policymakers face another demanding yearArmageddon postponedSlow progress towards banking unionThe ECB too gloomy? Not likely.
Greek bail-out deal won't bring lasting calmAnother Greek sticking plasterCore's resilience unlikely to lastGreek stay of execution won’t lift the economic gloomFirms and households still unwilling to borrowIs the core softening its stance?Can Spain really have its cake and eat it?The euro-zone’s multiplying woesIs the Greek bail-out starting to crumble?Small steps forward don't lift the uncertainty
Spain's waiting game is a risky oneFurther glimmers of hopeHas the game really changed?Consumer outlook darkensIs this the real crunch time for Greece?Core’s export resilience won’t lastAction will need to follow words before longECB ups the pressure on governmentsThree little wordsHopes of near-term policy boost fade further
Weaker currency won’t bail out the euro-zoneIs the ECB out of ammo?Sensible changes, but no big cureBail-out talks are the next key hurdle for GreeceWhat’s left in the pot?Markets' optimism to prove short livedAre we too optimistic on the euro?Growth plans look futile as German activity fallsThe exit path becomes clearerHas Greece already crossed the Rubicon?
Austerity is the best policyGrowth talk is cheapGerman consumer boom is a mythThe ECB has limited ammunitionDraghi buries the silver bulletBigger firewall is a small step forwardLTRO sparkle starting to fadeWeak labour market underlines divergence with USGreek deal does not eliminate break-up risksWill stubborn inflation scupper recovery hopes?
Growth plans are too long termFrance won't stay in the lead for longGreece on the brink, yet againCompact agreed, but economies divergeCould Germany yet save the euro?Greek debt deal won’t eliminate break-up risksSome glimmers of hopeSpring bond redemptions may prove pivotalCrunch year for the euro-zoneBanks unlikely to ride to their governments’ rescue
ECB’s silver bullet turns out to be a blankMarkets gamble on the ECBBreak-up worries finally hitting the euroBreak-up fears pile pressure on the coreItaly on the road to defaultPapandreou shatters the illusionPolicymakers fail to get aheadCrunch time, againAre policymakers about to take decisive action?Banks’ capital needs could be greater than feared
No closer to resolving the crisisCore policymakers resisting calls for decisive actionHeading for another recessionCore and periphery still at loggerheadsIs the euro-zone heading back into recession?Collateral squabble casts doubt on Greek bail-outPolicymakers still unwilling to pull out all the stopsFrench fears deepen crisisItaly’s debt dynamics worsenSlowdown spreads to Germany
Back from the brink, for nowStill fiddling while Rome starts to burnA reality check for PortugalGreek plan won’t end the periphery’s problemsGreece edging closer to a second bail-outGreece teetering on the edgeVoluntary is the key "v-word" nowGreek bond plan faces big hurdlesRecovery past the peakNo "soft" options for Greece