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Capital Economics

The leading macroeconomic research consultancy

ECB Watch

Gives a view on the forthcoming rate setting meeting of the central bank.

Sample - Political pressure keeping lid on QE for now

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ECB to maintain a hard line on GreeceQE may disappoint high expectationsQE’s coming, probably in JanuaryPolitical pressure keeping lid on QE for nowPreparing the ground for QEECB to hint strongly at QE and ultimately deliverECB on hold despite deflation riskECB on hold to gauge effect of new policiesRate cut and lending incentives unlikely to be enoughDovish tone to hint at action next month
ECB Watch - More policy action still aheadAnother small rate cut?ECB needs to follow words with actionECB has more work to do in 2014Time to talk about the euro?A softer stanceMore LTROs in the pipeline?Draghi won't firm up his guidanceMoving towards a rate cut?Still mulling more support; exit remains distant
Surveying the zero bound with cautionBalance marginally in favour of rate cutA softer tone but no actionSupport for Italy would come with strings attachedDraghi to shrug off currency concernsA testing new yearStill standing readyECB adamant about conditions for bond buyingProviding little more clarity on OMTsBond purchases on hold, but other measures possible
More bond purchases, but no boost for the ESMA rate cut but no moreWill the ECB provide more support?No response to weaker growthClose to the limit?Credit crunch risks have not evaporatedWill the ECB take a haircut?ECB to continue to resist bigger bond purchasesAnother rate cut, but no silver bulletNo rate cut yet, but more bond buying
Laying the groundwork for policy looseningIs the ECB about to turn?ECB to remain in hawkish mode for nowRates going up, but will ECB approve Greek deal?Green light for July hike"Strong vigilance" would signal June hikeRate hike unlikely to be the first of manyECB's hawkish stance to hardenECB to maintain its hawkish stanceECB to stand pat amidst conflicting forces
Phasing out support despite peripheral crisisECB's tightening bias should not last longECB in danger of slipping behindStill pretty downbeat despite a strong Q2A more positive tone, but tighter policy is distantPledging support for troubled banksResisting full-blown QE... for nowGreek turmoil adds to ECB cautionMaintaining a dovish toneAnother small step towards the exit
Benign inflation outlook to keep rates on holdGently does itTreading carefullyNo hints of tighter policyMaintaining a supportive stanceTreating signs of recovery with cautionECB sticking to its gunsMaintaining narrow focus on bank lendingECB still hesitant to pull out all the stopsIs the ECB ready to take the plunge into QE?
Any hints of asset purchases?Another step towards zero, but still no plan for QEECB worryingly cautiousECB making slow progressECB to deliver 50bp, but probably no more just yetAnother 50bps now and much more to comeStubbornly focused on inflation risksStaff forecasts to highlight weaker growth prospectsSlowing activity will eventually prompt rate cutsRate hike will prove to be a one-off
Still talking tough, but next move will be downRate cuts still some months awayNot ready to signal rate cutCracks in ECB's hawkish stance to widenInterest rates heading for 3.0%, eventuallyHawkish stance to soften in H2Inflation fears to keep the ECB in hawkish modeInflation concerns to prompt rate hike signal?Will Trichet signal a November hike?Balance shifting against September rate hike
ECB On Holiday - Back (To Hike) In September.Hawkish tone to point to 4.5% ratesECB to signal that it's not done yetECB to confirm June hike, and hint at moreTrichet to signal that the ECB's work isn't done yetTrichet to signal further rise to 4%Trichet to stick to the script and signal a March hikeTightening bias still in placeWill any clues for policy in 2007 be revealed?Putting the seal on a December hike
Trichet likely to keep talking toughReturn of "vigilance" to signal October hikeExtraordinary meeting signals policy moveExpect increasingly hawkish noises from the ECBI have 25, do I hear 50?Return of vigilance to signal June hikePreparing for a May hikeRates to rise to 2.5% on March 2nd, 3.5% by year-endPreparing the ground for a March rate hikeWhat to expect from Thursday’s ECB meeting
Trichet less hawkish than markets expectedTrichet ratchets up the state of vigilance - againTrichet recognises Q2 growth likely to be weakWill the ECB follow Sweden and the UK?Trichet plays down rate cut expectationsMaking the best of a bad handECB on hold as recovery runs out of steamECB on hold despite jump in headline inflationEuro-zone rates on hold this year, and nextSummer rate cut still in play