Emerging Europe Economics

Emerging Europe Economics Focus
25 November, 2009

Ukraine: At a crossroads

We estimate that Ukraine needs a further $7.5bn in external financing assistance next year. But with
the outcome of January’s Presidential elections still uncertain, the source of this funding is not yet
clear. With PM Tymoshenko seemingly in pole position to take over as President, we think that reengagement
with the IMF is most likely. But if pro-Russia candidate Victor Yanukovych triumphs,
Ukraine could turn eastwards. Either way, after contracting by around 15% this year, we think that
it could take five years for GDP to return to its pre-crisis level....

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