Banks and Credit

CBRT dodging inflation duty, Poland’s tax proposals

Turkey’s central bank raised its inflation forecasts this week and Governor Kavcioglu’s comments suggest that policymakers are unlikely to step up to the plate in the fight against inflation. Meanwhile, further details of the “Polish Deal” published this week suggest that policymakers' focus is on increasing demand rather than the economy’s supply potential, increasing the risk of overheating.

30 July 2021

We don’t expect the rally in bond markets to continue

While long-dated government bond yields have plummeted in recent months, we suspect that high inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy will see them turn a corner before long. We forecast long-term yields to rise across most major economies, especially in the US, where inflationary pressures look particularly strong. Higher yields may also help limit the upside for risky assets, such as equities and corporate bonds. Their valuations already appear fairly stretched in many cases. And when it comes to equities, an extremely strong rebound in corporate earnings already appears to be discounted. As a result, we forecast only small gains in equities across both DMs and EMs, and expect credit spreads to narrow only a little, if at all, from here.

30 July 2021

Investors refocus on long-term concerns

Questions about the strength of China’s post-lockdown rebound have become louder since the People’s Bank cut the required reserve ratio three weeks ago. But the trigger for this week’s sharp equity market sell-off was instead growing disquiet about the leadership’s commitment to open and free capital markets. The MSCI China index is now discounted relative to developed market equities to a degree that has not been seen since 2014/15, with the exception of a brief spell last year. Officials insist that it is only the private education sector that they want to crush but, even if investors accept that, the episode brings into focus the political risk associated with investing in China and it underlines the leadership’s ambivalence towards markets. We think this will take a toll on economic growth over the medium term. And we expect it to weigh further on equities too.

30 July 2021
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Bankruptcy code upgrade, RBI meeting

The amendments to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) that were approved in the Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) this week could provide much-needed support to India’s banking sector. But there's no guarantee that they will pass through the Rajya Sabha. Next week, we think interest rates will be left unchanged at the conclusion of the RBI's policy meeting on Friday as it remains focused on supporting the economic recovery.

Divisions emerge, but early end to BoE’s asset purchases unlikely

While the Bank of England will upgrade its near-term forecasts for inflation in its Monetary Policy Report (MPR) published on 5th August, it will probably still judge that the rise is transitory. And while Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Michael Saunders may break ranks to vote in favour of an early end to the Bank’s net asset purchases, we do not think others will join him in signalling that interest rate hikes are drawing closer.

29 July 2021

Money & Credit (Jun.)

The money and credit data showed that consumers were willing to take on more debt in June. However, with consumers accumulating excess savings at a faster pace, there were signs that the resurgence in virus cases may have triggered some consumer caution, which could weigh on the recovery.

29 July 2021

Delta fears, Hungary-EU spat, more NBU tightening

Concerns have grown over the past week about the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 but high vaccine coverage across much of the region has reduced the risk that policymakers will be forced to reimpose harsh restrictions on activity. Meanwhile, Hungary’s latest spat with the European Commission over the rule of law raises the possibility of delays to EU fund inflows. Finally, Ukraine's central bank delivered a surprise rate hike this week and its communications signalled that further monetary tightening lies in store.

Evergrande is a poster child for property sector risks

Evergrande appears to be getting closer to a reckoning over the scale of its liabilities as regulators, banks and local governments tighten the screws. It is just the largest of many developers that have leant heavily on pre-sales and on creative accounting to circumvent rules on borrowing. The government’s priority will be to ensure that any restructuring is orderly. But a slowdown in property construction activity will be hard to avoid.

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