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ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.)

The further small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July probably has more to do with the continued drag from supply constraints than waning demand. The details did at least suggest that supplier delivery times and the accompanying upward pressure on prices may have peaked. But we suspect it will be a long time before supply constraints ease meaningfully.

2 August 2021

Recovery to slow from here

The slightly disappointing second-quarter GDP data released this week and another dovish press conference from Chair Jerome Powell strengthen our belief that the Fed is unlikely to begin tapering its asset purchases until early next year.

30 July 2021

Payroll growth to remain elevated

With labour supply continuing to lag the recovery in demand, we estimate that growth in non-farm payrolls slowed to 650,000 in July.

 

29 July 2021
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RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q2)

Improvements in occupier demand boosted market sentiment in Q2. With over half of surveyors perceiving the property cycle to be in an upturn, prospects for H2 performance look solid. But while we share surveyors’ optimism about the industrial outlook, we think they are overly upbeat on offices.

GDP (Q2)

The relatively disappointing 6.5% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP, which was well below the consensus at 8.5%, included unexpected declines in government spending and residential investment, and a bigger drag from inventories than we had anticipated. The good news is that the economy has now surpassed its pre-pandemic level. But with the impact from the fiscal stimulus waning, surging prices weakening purchasing power, the delta variant running amok in the south and the saving rate lower than we thought, we expect real GDP growth to slow to 3.5% annualised in the second half of this year.  

Fed offers first hint on tapering

The Fed took a small step toward the eventual tapering of its asset purchases by altering the language in the statement released today, but officials appear to be in no rush. We still expect an announcement in August or September, with the taper itself probably not beginning until the start of 2022.

28 July 2021

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

US commercial crude stocks resumed their downward trend last week. With domestic output still well below pre-virus levels and product demand likely to rise, we think crude stocks will fall further from here.

US Metro Employment (Jun.)

Employment growth accelerated in June, helping office-based employment return to pre-pandemic levels in almost a third of metros. But the 3m/3m growth rate in total employment was highest in the metros with the biggest shortfalls, as the return to normalcy continued to drive employment gains.

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