My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Europe

Nordic & Swiss

Scandinavia & Switzerland: Value gains set to slow

The recovery continued in the Scandinavian and Swiss economies and their property markets in Q1. It was a record first quarter for investment in Scandinavia. And annual capital value growth was robust for office and industrial, while retail values rebounded from their pandemic lows. However, pent-up demand from the pandemic will wane and the sharp rise in bond yields is already squeezing property valuations. As such, investment activity should slow over the course of the year, while we think property yields will reach their troughs.

24 May 2022

Dumbo does monetary policy in Stockholm

The elephant-based metaphor used by Governor Ingves this week to describe how the ECB’s actions affect the Riksbank was particularly well judged given the increasing chance that Swedish and euro-zone policymakers will deliver mammoth 50bp rate hikes over the coming months. It will be another very quiet week on the data front next week. Riksbank Deputy Governor Anna Breman is due to participate in a panel discussion on the growing role of the financial sector in the climate transition on Tuesday but we would be surprised if she resisted using the platform to deliver a hawkish policy message.
ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

20 May 2022

Rising CPI expectations occupying minds at Riksbank

Just as policymakers at the ECB are becoming more concerned about inflation expectations, the rise in expectations in Sweden is giving the Riksbank plenty to fret about too. The Bank’s preferred measure – gleaned from a survey of money market participants over a five-year horizon – jumped from 2.2% in April to 2.4% in May. (For context, the previous series high was 2.3%, set in September 2009.)

13 May 2022
More Publications

NATO retaliation; Riksbank eyeing front-loading?

Even if reports that Russia is close to cutting off the supply of natural gas to Finland prove accurate, Finland seems well placed to replace Russian flows with LNG imports from elsewhere. So, while Finland’s economy will be hit harder than most other euro-zone economies from a broader loss of trade with Russia, the direct effect of a cessation in Russian gas supplies in retaliation for its NATO application would be small.

Sweden Consumer Prices (Apr.)

The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in April was partly due to high energy and food prices but also because of broadening price pressures. We expect the core rate to remain above the Riksbank’s target for some time, which will prompt it to continue hiking interest rates.

Norway Consumer Prices (Apr.)

The stronger-than-expected increase in core inflation in April raises the chances that the Norges Bank will step up the pace of tightening at its next rate decision, in June. Markets Drop-In (11th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our Q2 Outlook reports and what they say about the potential performance of bonds, equities and FX rates as inflation peaks in a special 20-minute briefing on Wednesday. Register now.

Schlegel gets a pay rise; new split at the Riksbank

The fact that the successor to Fritz Zurbrügg as Vice-Chair of the SNB’s Governing Board, Martin Schlegel, is an SNB stalwart means the looming changes at the top are unlikely to change the decision-making dynamics at the Bank. But whereas Mr Zurbrügg will most probably sign off without having raised interest rates during his ten-year term, Mr Schlegel looks set to quickly get a few rate hikes under his belt.
Markets Drop-In (11th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our Q2 Outlook reports and what they say about the potential performance of bonds, equities and FX rates as inflation peaks in a special 20-minute briefing on Wednesday. Register now.

Higher rates to squeeze Copenhagen office values

With economic concerns worsening in the euro-zone, we expect that the Danish economy will not be immune. And we think that the shifts in the interest rate outlook in particular will have the most significant impact on Copenhagen office performance. UK Housing Drop-In (10th May 10:00 BST/17:00 SGT): Economists from our property team are hosting a 20-minute briefing to explain why we think UK house prices are heading for a fall – and how bad the fallout will be. Register now.

1 to 8 of 175 publications
See More ↓