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Middle East Economics Update

Qatar’s LNG boost still a few years away

With Russia tightening its squeeze on supply of gas to Europe, governments are turning their attention to other major gas exporters such as Qatar to try to fill the gap. But Qatar’s gas sector is already operating close to capacity and, while the North Field expansion that comes online from 2025 will boost the country’s LNG capacity by over 60%, this wouldn’t be a panacea for Europe’s gas shortages. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this MENA Update to clients of our Energy and Emerging Europe Services.

9 August 2022

Energy Update

We’re less upbeat about OPEC oil supply

Concerns about the demand outlook have dragged the Brent crude oil price towards $90 per barrel this week. But, the supply-side concerns which pushed the price over $120 per barrel not too long ago haven’t entirely vanished. Indeed, following the OPEC+ meeting this week, we are now less upbeat on supply. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now.

5 August 2022

Global Economics Update

The natural gas crisis and the global economy

The news today that Gazprom will further reduce its natural gas supply to Europe increases the likelihood of recessions in the euro-zone, UK and parts of Emerging Europe. It also supports our view that inflation pressures will be relatively persistent in Europe, so the ECB and the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates further than markets expect. While some economies will benefit from higher gas prices, the net effect will be negative for the global economy. Drop-In (Weds, 27th July): Will high inflation and monetary tightening result in a global recession? Join this 20-minute briefing on our Global Economic Outlook to find out which economies are vulnerable and which could outperform. Register here.

26 July 2022

Energy Update

LNG prices to remain historically high

Europe’s heightened demand for LNG will be enough to keep prices high this year and into 2023, particularly as LNG supply growth will be fairly limited.

18 July 2022

Energy Update

Strong demand for US natural gas to keep prices high

After a period of extreme volatility, we expect the price of US natural gas to edge higher in the remainder of this year. Together, a rise in LNG exports and a pick-up in US consumption this winter will keep stocks low by past standards and underpin a historically high price for US natural gas.

11 July 2022

Energy Update

Making sense of a price cap on Russian energy

The G7 proposal to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil and gas would introduce new supply-side risks by potentially disrupting Russian energy supplies. This could push global energy prices up further, but for now we still see Brent crude prices ending 2022 at $100 per barrel. The cap may also be effective at reducing the Russian government’s tax revenues. We don’t think a cap on the price of Urals crude would need to be too far below $80pb (from $90pb currently) to push Russia’s budget into a deficit. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Commodities Overview and Emerging Europe Services.  

28 June 2022

Energy Update

OPEC+ to change tack from September

Whilst OPEC+ has been failing to meet its production quotas in recent months, it will technically finish unwinding its pandemic-related supply cuts come September. We think OPEC+ will then move to a more liberal approach and allow the few members with spare capacity to produce more. This is one reason why we forecast that the Brent oil price will ease back to around $100 per barrel by year end. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Middle East and North Africa service.

23 June 2022

Energy Update

Europe’s gas supply looking increasingly fragile

Russia’s decision to once again cut supplies to Europe makes the region’s gas supply look increasingly precarious. The move will slow regional stock builds and keep prices historically high.

16 June 2022

Energy Update

Freeport outage fuels already heightened supply fears

The closure of the Freeport LNG facility in the US, for up to six months, adds to concerns about Europe’s ability to fill its gas storage tanks ahead of winter. We always suspected that supply concerns would re-emerge this year and, as a result, we continue to forecast prices at around €120 per MWh at end-2022.

15 June 2022

Energy Update

West’s detachment from Russian energy gathers pace

The EU’s sixth round of sanctions on Russia marks yet another defining moment in the West’s detachment from Russia’s energy trade. The sanctions were widely telegraphed in advance, though, so for now we still forecast that crude oil prices will remain high but slide towards $100 per barrel by year-end.

31 May 2022

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