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China Data Response

China Activity & Spending (Jul.)

The July data suggest that the post-lockdown recovery lost steam as the one-off boost from reopening fizzled out and mortgage boycotts triggered a renewed deterioration in the property sector. We think the outlook will remain challenging in the coming months as exports turn from tailwind to headwind, the property downturn deepens, and virus disruptions remain a recurring drag. Asia Drop-In (25th Aug.): What’s the economic impact of a weak yen? What does the latest China-Taiwan flare-up mean for decoupling? How ugly are conditions in China’s real estate sector? Join economists from across our Asia services for this regular briefing on the region’s big investment stories. Register now.

15 August 2022

China Data Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.)

Credit growth dropped back last month, with property market jitters weighing on bank lending. It may continue to disappoint in the near-term given that sentiment among homebuyers is likely to stay weak and government borrowing is on course to slow.

12 August 2022

China Data Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.)

Consumer price inflation rose to a 24-month high in July and is now nearing the government’s target of 3%. But that is still very low by global standards, and we think headline inflation is close to a peak and will drop back over the coming quarters. Meanwhile, producer price inflation fell to its lowest in 17 months.

10 August 2022

China Data Response

China Trade (Jul.)

Exports held up well last month, thanks to a backlog of orders still being cleared. But it won’t be long before shipments drop back on cooling foreign demand. Meanwhile, imports continued to trend down, pointing to further domestic weakness.

8 August 2022

China Data Response

Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary)

Hong Kong’s GDP ticked up last quarter as the easing of virus restrictions boosted consumption. But the recovery was muted, held back by a drop in exports. We think growth will remain weak given rising interest rates, cooling global demand and the absence of mainland visitors. EM Drop-In (4th August, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our monthly online session on the big issues in emerging markets. In this 20-minute briefing, the team will be answering your questions about debt risks amid global tightening, the latest on the inflation outlook and much more. Register now.

1 August 2022

China Data Response

China PMIs (Jul.)

The surveys suggest that China’s economic recovery slowed in July as the one-off boost from reopening faded. It is consistent with our view that activity will remain below trend in the coming quarters.

1 August 2022

China Data Response

China GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.)

The statistics bureau claim that output in Q2 was slightly higher than a year ago. That’s implausible even accounting for the strong rebound shown on the monthly data for June.

15 July 2022

China Data Response

China Trade (Jun.)

Import volumes fell to a three-year low last month, pointing to continued weakness in China’s construction sector. Exports rebounded strongly as shipping bottlenecks eased. But we think this may be the last hurrah for China’s pandemic export boom before shipments drop back on cooling demand.

13 July 2022

China Data Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (June)

A further slight pick-up in credit growth last month was given a big helping hand from government bond issuance as local governments were instructed to issue their annual allocation of bonds by the end of June. That suggests the acceleration could stall or even reverse this month. There’s no sign in the data of large-scale stimulus. China Drop-In (Friday, 15th July): Did China’s economy contract in the second quarter? How much stimulus is the government willing to pump in to drive a recovery? Join our China team for a briefing after the release of the NBS Q2 report on Friday. Register here.

11 July 2022

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun.)

The Caixin manufacturing PMI hit a 13-month high in June and points to a jump in output as virus restrictions were lifted and supply chain conditions improved. But it still points to subdued demand growth and doesn’t alter our view that economic activity will remain below trend in the coming months.

1 July 2022

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