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Commodities Update

Risk of tighter agricultural export restrictions growing

The recent tightening of export restrictions has been limiting the supply of staple agricultural commodities available to global markets and pushing up prices. In light of the ban on wheat exports from India, we’ve raised our forecast for the price of wheat from 800 US cents per bushel to 900 by end-2022.

23 May 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Q&A on Russia’s budget, deficit financing & default

In this Update, we answer a number of key questions on Russia’s public finances, including the likelihood of a sovereign default, the impact of higher energy prices and the collapse of the economy on the budget position, and how the government would be able to finance a budget deficit.

23 May 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Pakistan: Further tightening needed, as IMF talks begin

High inflation and the fall in the currency were the two key factors behind the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) decision to raise interest rates by a further 150bp today. More tightening looks inevitable, and much will depend on whether the government can agree terms with the IMF over the resumption of its US$6bn loan programme. Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

23 May 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Bank of Israel steps up tightening

The Bank of Israel hiked its policy by a larger-than-expected 40bp today, to 0.75%, and the backdrop of a strong economy, tight labour market and mounting inflation pressures means that we think it will deliver further hikes at its upcoming meetings, to 2.25% by early next year.

23 May 2022

India Economics Update

A small helping hand for households

Measures unveiled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman over the weekend including a cut to excise duties on petrol and ramping up of fertiliser subsidies should offer a small reprieve to households dealing with the sharp rise in fuel and food prices. But the measures won’t be enough to prevent further rises in inflation over the coming months, and will come at the cost of a slightly wider fiscal deficit this year. Asia Drop-In (26th May, 0900 BST/16:00 SGT): Can Asia remain the low inflation exception? Join our 20-minute briefing about the region’s price and policy outlooks. Register here.

23 May 2022

Global Economics Update

Can we trust the PMIs after their undue optimism in Q1?

The PMI surveys gave an overly optimistic steer of GDP growth in advanced economies in Q1. This partly reflected volatility in imports and inventories and the effects of COVID restrictions, all of which should fade from now on allowing the PMIs to give a more accurate steer. But since the headline PMIs do not cover the retail sector, they might continue to overstate actual GDP growth to some extent.

23 May 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

What does a Labor government mean for Australia?

A Labor government will probably keep fiscal policy looser than the previous Coalition government, putting more pressure on the RBA to hike interest rates. But while a Labor government will make greater efforts to decarbonise the economy, the bulk of mining output is exported so this won’t have a big impact on the mining industry. And we doubt Labor will be able to end the trade war with China.

23 May 2022

Global Economics Update

Weakening economy will not do central banks’ job for them

The cost of living squeeze will push net energy importers including the euro-zone and UK close to, or into, recession. While this will have some disinflationary effects in the medium-term, we doubt that it will bring inflation down on its own. So central banks will still raise interest rates significantly further.

20 May 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

New Zealand - Budget boost will exacerbate inflationary pressures

While the government’s Budget was focused on equipping households to withstand surging living costs, by adding to demand we think it will cause inflation to be higher over the next year. That’s all the more reason for the RBNZ to continue hiking rates aggressively throughout this year.

20 May 2022

European Economics Update

Historical experience highlights recession risks

History suggests that the surge in energy prices over the past year means there is a good chance that the euro-zone will suffer a recession in 2022. It also suggests that it will be tricky for the ECB to tighten monetary policy without causing a recession further ahead.

20 May 2022

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