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Capital Daily

We expect China’s bond market to diverge from those elsewhere

We think China’s long-term government bond yields will continue to fall as the country’s economy slows further, even if yields rebound elsewhere.

2 August 2021

Capital Daily

We expect stock market gains to underwhelm from here

Although we don’t think the latest ructions in stock markets suggest a more significant rout is on the way, we suspect that stocks’ recovery from their pandemic-era lows has largely run its course, and doubt they will rally sharply from here.

30 July 2021

Capital Daily

Bond market pessimism looks overdone

The US yield curve continues to send a gloomy message, which we think is hard to square with the economic outlook.

29 July 2021

Capital Daily

We think US real yields are unlikely to stay this low

The yields of long-dated US Treasuries have edged down this week, and those of TIPS have dropped to a new record low, but we still expect both to recover over the next couple of years.

28 July 2021

Capital Daily

China’s stock market sell-off and the rest of the world

Although equity indices in both Hong Kong and mainland China have fallen sharply in recent days, the impact on financial markets elsewhere in the world has, so far, been remarkably limited. This Capital Daily examines why this might be and considers what might happen next.

27 July 2021

Capital Daily

The mounting headwinds to China’s equities

A lot of the underperformance of China’s equities relative to those of the rest of the world that we forecast a few months ago has now happened – today’s sharp falls have taken the benchmark indices in both Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland more than 15% below their February highs. But a few recent developments suggest that the outlook for those indices may be even worse than we had initially thought.

26 July 2021

Capital Daily

A closer look at earnings season so far

A strong start to Q2 earnings season in the US has helped cement expectations that EPS growth over the next few years will also be very rapid. With so much optimism baked in, it seems likely to us that the tailwind of rising earnings forecasts, which provided so much support to the stock market over the past year, will fade. That is one reason why we think US equities will make only small gains over the two years.

23 July 2021

Capital Daily

The ECB’s new guidance and its implications for E-Z bonds

We don’t think the changes to the ECB’s guidance announced today or the Bank’s recent strategy review materially alter the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone. However, they make us even more confident in our view that the yields of euro-zone government bonds will rise only gradually over next few years and that “peripheral” spreads will remain low.

22 July 2021

Capital Daily

We expect EM currencies to remain under pressure

We doubt that today’s rebound in emerging market currencies marks the start of a renewed rally and expect them to continue to depreciate against the US dollar over the next few years.

21 July 2021

Capital Daily

Stock market wobble probably not a sign of things to come

We doubt that the recent weakness in global equities is the start of a larger rout and think the market will recover before long.

20 July 2021

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