Higher online share to boost logistics demand by 15%

Virus-driven behaviour changes that support a faster online transition will boost industrial demand over the coming years. But we don’t believe the view that higher online spending will cause rents to detach permanently from the underlying strength of the economy. And since we don’t expect to see the sort of supply shortages that plagued the UK market in recent years,…
Amy Wood Property Economist
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US Housing Market Update

What’s driving the surge in rent expectations?

Consumer expectations of rental growth have surged to record highs over the past couple of months. But that appears to reflect optimism around the housing market in general, rather than the rental sector in particular. We therefore doubt actual rental growth will follow expectations to record highs. That said, a rise in demand as cities and offices reopen means rental growth will recover, albeit to a fairly modest 2% y/y by the end of the year.

10 June 2021

US Housing Market Chart Book

Home sales cool and prices will soon follow

Both new and existing home sales dropped back in April and the May pending home sales index points to further declines in existing sales over the next couple of months. House price growth of over 13% y/y and a rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year have stretched affordability and alongside record low inventory that is weighing on housing market activity. But unlike the mid-2000s, we doubt an unsustainable boom in house prices is on the horizon. Credit conditions tightened last year, and we expect only a gradual easing over the coming months. Price growth will therefore soon follow the downturn in home sales. Rental demand is recovering swiftly as the economy has reopened and vacancy rates are now falling. We expect that trend will continue, pushing rental growth up to 2.0% y/y by the end of the year.

8 June 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (May.)

Home purchase mortgage demand continued its downward trend in May and is now broadly in line with its pre-virus level. Easing credit conditions and the reopening of the economy will provide some support to home purchase demand in the coming months. But with record low inventory constraining sales and affordability stretched, we think that home purchase applications have a little further to fall this year.

2 June 2021

More from Amy Wood

European Commercial Property Update

Consensus catching up to the view of a weak recovery

The latest IPF Consensus forecasts are consistent with our view that prime office rents will fall this year and the recovery in 2022 will be weak, even as the easing of virus restrictions allows economic activity to rebound. However, outside of Emerging Europe, we are more pessimistic on the outlook after 2022.

3 June 2021

European Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Rise in bond yields weighs on property valuations

The marked rise in government bond yields drove a deterioration in property valuations in Q1, particularly in industrial markets where property yields also fell steeply. And with government bond yields edging up further in Q2, valuations will continue to be squeezed. That said, we expect most euro-zone government bond yields to edge lower in the second half of the year and think the economic recovery will support equities. As such, there is scope for some improvement by year-end. This will support lower office and industrial yields. However, without further rises in retail yields, this is unlikely to be enough to attract investors to retail assets.

2 June 2021

European Commercial Property Update

Hamburg office rental growth set to outperform

As the recovery in occupier demand gets underway, we think that the low amounts of vacant modern space, limited supply pipeline and comparatively cheap rents will mean that prime office rental growth in Hamburg outperforms the other main German markets in the coming years.

11 May 2021
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