Higher online share to boost logistics demand by 15%

Virus-driven behaviour changes that support a faster online transition will boost industrial demand over the coming years. But we don’t believe the view that higher online spending will cause rents to detach permanently from the underlying strength of the economy. And since we don’t expect to see the sort of supply shortages that plagued the UK market in recent years,…
Amy Wood Property Economist
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US Housing Market Data Response

Existing Home Sales (Aug.)

Existing home sales dropped back in August as booming house prices and a lack of affordable inventory shut out first-time buyers. A small recovery in home purchase mortgage demand suggests sales may tick-up next month but with mortgage rates set to rise and inventory to remain tight that improvement won’t be sustained, and sales will end the year at around 5.7m annualised.

Drop-In: Evergrande – What are the risks to China and the world? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard will be joined by Senior Markets Economist Oliver Jones to take your questions about the Evergrande situation. They’ll be covering the implications of collapse for China’s financial system and growth outlook, and assessing the global markets fallout. Register here for the 0900 BST/1600 HKT session on Thursday, 23rd September.

22 September 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Housing Starts (Aug.)

A boom in multifamily construction has supported housing starts in recent months, with multifamily building permits rising to a 31-year high. On the single-family side, homebuilders have reported strong demand but material and labour shortages are preventing builders from getting to work on the large backlog of homes that have been authorised. Those constraints will not be solved overnight, so we except single-family starts will see only a gradual rise to around 1.16m annualised by the end of this year.

21 September 2021

US Housing Market Update

Stimulus cheques help explain house price rebound

After beginning to slow at the turn of the year, house price growth has since got a second wind. We suspect the key driver behind that resurgence was the arrival of the third round of stimulus cheques, which drove up the saving rate and helped boost first-time buyer down payments by 12% between February and May. But with no more cheques on the horizon and the saving rate stabilising that support for house prices will dissipate, supporting our call that annual house price growth will soon peak.

17 September 2021

More from Amy Wood

European Commercial Property Update

Has Athens been pushed off track by COVID-19?

After gaining ground since 2018, the recovery in Athens’ prime property values has stalled. However, we think that the catch up with the euro-zone will continue, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years.

6 July 2021

European Commercial Property Update

Vaccine passport no silver bullet for prime high streets

Lingering restrictions on travel mean that weakness in foreign tourist spending will continue to weigh on retailers’ incomes in tourist-dependent retail markets this year. This supports our view that prime retail rents will fall, even as the domestic economic recovery gets underway.

1 July 2021

European Commercial Property Update

Consensus catching up to the view of a weak recovery

The latest IPF Consensus forecasts are consistent with our view that prime office rents will fall this year and the recovery in 2022 will be weak, even as the easing of virus restrictions allows economic activity to rebound. However, outside of Emerging Europe, we are more pessimistic on the outlook after 2022.

3 June 2021
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