US Data Response

US Data Response

Industrial Production (Sep.)

The 1.3% fall in industrial production in September partly reflects a temporary hit to mining and chemicals output from Hurricane Ida and a drop in cooling demand, as the weather returned to seasonal norms. That said, most of the 0.7% drop in manufacturing output is due to worsening shortages, particularly of semiconductors, which will hold back production for some considerable time.

18 October 2021

US Data Response

Retail Sales (Sep.)

The 0.7% m/m rise in retail sales in September suggests goods spending held up a little better than we had anticipated, but real consumption growth still slowed sharply in the third quarter.

15 October 2021

US Data Response

Consumer Prices (Sep.)

The more muted 0.2% m/m increase in core consumer prices in September is not as encouraging as it looks, since a temporary Delta-related drop back in the prices of high contact services masked a worrying acceleration in the cyclical components, particularly housing, which is more likely to be sustained even once the supply shortage and reopening effects fade.

13 October 2021
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US Data Response

Employment Report (Sep.)

The disappointing 194,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September probably still counts as “decent” enough for the Fed to begin tapering its asset purchases next month. But alongside signs that activity growth is slowing sharply, at the same time as worsening labour shortages are putting serious upward pressure on wage growth, the report looks set to leave Fed officials in an uncomfortable position.

US Data Response

US International Trade (Aug.)

We expect that the widening in the trade deficit to $73.3bn in August, from $70.3bn, will soon start to reverse, as exports catch up with imports. But there is a risk over the coming months that worsening supply chain disruptions weigh on trade in both directions.

US Data Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.)

The small rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 61.1 in September, from 59.9, mostly reflects an artificial boost from lengthening supplier delivery times rather than any improvement in demand. Alongside the softening in manufacturing activity in Asia, ongoing supply disruptions suggest the manufacturing recovery will lose steam over the coming months.

US Data Response

Durable Goods (Aug.)

The 1.8% m/m rise in durable goods orders in August was due to the ongoing rebound in commercial aircraft orders together with solid growth in underlying capital goods orders, with the latter reflecting the strength of investment amid widespread labour shortages.

US Data Response

Retail Sales (Aug.)

Even though the 0.7% rise in headline retail sales in August was much better than expected, the details were far less positive, with big downward revisions to previous months, while the rise in online and grocery store spending, which contrasts with stagnant spending at bars and restaurants, suggesting that Delta fears are playing a key role.

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