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US Data Response

US Data Response

Industrial Production (Apr.)

The 0.8% rise in manufacturing output last month underlines that it is not just consumer spending powering the economy forward. While the survey evidence suggests global manufacturing demand is cooling, the gradual easing of input shortages over recent months is helping to keep output growth strong.

17 May 2022

US Data Response

Retail Sales (Apr.)

Never bet against the US consumer has always been a good adage to bear in mind throughout my 20-plus years in the markets. Despite the surge in prices weighing on their purchasing power, the US consumer now appears to be single-handedly keeping the global economy afloat again.

17 May 2022

US Data Response

Consumer Prices (Apr.)

The falls in headline and core inflation in April marks the beginning of a sustained decline, as base effects improve and supply shortages ease, although the 0.6% monthly jump in core prices indicates that underlying inflation pressures could be stronger than we had expected.  

11 May 2022
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US Data Response

Employment Report (Apr.)

The solid 428,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in April illustrates that the Fed was right to ignore the misleading contraction in first-quarter GDP, with the economy still on a firm footing. Admittedly, we expect employment growth to slow this year, but fears of an imminent recession, which have been amplified by the latest bout of weakness in equities, are overblown. Payrolls Drop-In (6th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): Our US Economics team will be online shortly after the April employment report to answer your questions and discuss what the latest payrolls data mean for our outlook on US growth, inflation and Fed policy. Register now

US Data Response

International Trade (Mar.)

The surge in the trade deficit to a record high of $109.8bn in March, from $89.8bn, was driven by a huge rise in imports as port congestion cleared. We suspect imports will fall back over the coming months, particularly given the lockdowns in China, but net trade will probably remain a drag on GDP growth in the second quarter. Payrolls Drop-In (6th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): Our US Economics team will be online shortly after the April employment report to answer your questions and discuss what the latest payrolls data mean for our outlook on US growth, inflation and Fed policy. Register now

US Data Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.)

The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 20-month low of 55.4 in April, from 57.1, is mostly due to weakening demand amid a broader slowdown in global manufacturing, rather than a renewed supply crunch.

2 May 2022

US Data Response

GDP (Q1)

The unexpectedly severe 1.4% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP probably won't stop the Fed from hiking interest rates by 50bp next week, since officials will chalk it up to the temporary impact of Omicron and point to the strength of underlying demand – with the growth rate of sales to private domestic purchasers accelerating to a healthy 3.7%.

US Data Response

Durable Goods (Mar.)

The solid increase in durable goods orders in March reflects both easing supply shortages as well as strong underlying investment demand. Business equipment investment is usually one of the more rate-sensitive parts of the economy, but tight labour markets and elevated capacity utilisation rates this early in the cycle mean we expect investment growth to hold up quite well.

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