A renewed wave of restrictions will cause the economic rebound to slow further in the near-term, but the prospect of widely-available effective vaccines next year has caused us to revise our already above-consensus forecasts for the coming years higher. We now expect GDP growth to be 5.0% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022. The election outcome means much of President-elect Joe Biden’s tax and spending plans are dead on arrival, but there is still a chance of more bipartisan fiscal stimulus being passed. Despite the stronger economic outlook, inflation still looks set to rise only modestly and the Fed’s recent changes to its policy framework means we expect rates to remain on hold for several years.