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US Commercial Property

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Commercial Property Data Response

Commercial Property Lending (Apr.)

Lending growth accelerated in April, seeing the strongest monthly gain in over 12 years. And with transactions having seen a fast start to the year, we think there is more to come in the next few months. Property Drop-In (19th May): What will rising interest rates mean for commercial property returns in the US, UK and Europe? Join our 20-minute briefing on the outlook for returns on Thursday. Register now.

16 May 2022

US Commercial Property Data Response

ULI Consensus Forecast (Spring 2022)

Consensus forecasts for rents and total returns in 2022 and 2023 have been upgraded in all four sectors since the last survey. But those changes come with property pricing looking more stretched than at any time in the last decade, leaving us reviewing our forecasts with a view to downgrading.

4 May 2022

US Commercial Property Data Response

RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q1)

The RICS Q1 survey showed a further improvement in sentiment, driven by more confidence in prospects for the office and retail sectors. However, since the survey was conducted, the outlook for growth has softened and bond yields have risen markedly, which will dent the recovery in rents and capital values.

28 April 2022
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US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (Mar.)

The recovery in employment broadly continued in March. However, the laggards in the recovery still look many months away from previous peaks in terms of both total and office-based employment. At the same time, they are being left behind by faster-growing markets, particularly in the South and in some office markets benefitting from firms moving to cheaper locations.

US Commercial Property Data Response

NCREIF Property Index (Q1)

Total returns on the NCREIF index were strong again in Q1, at 5.3% q/q. That was led by industrial, where they reached 11% q/q, with apartments at just over 5% and the other sectors all lagging at around 2%. And while we were right to say last quarter that industrial and apartment returns had probably peaked, the bigger concern now is that returns could slow more rapidly than we had previously thought, thanks to faster rises in Treasury yields and a weaker outlook for economic growth.

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (Feb.)

The jobs recovery continued in February, for both total employment and office-based roles. But the divergence in performance of the last two years is persisting, reinforcing our view that many of the drivers of performance this cycle will be structural.

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (Jan.)

The jobs recovery continued in January, but nearly two years on from the start of the pandemic, employment in most metros is still not back to its pre-crisis peak. And, in terms of office jobs, there remains a huge divergence between the leaders in Texas and Florida and many northern coastal cities, where office jobs have yet to fully recover.

US Commercial Property Data Response

Commercial Property Lending (Feb.)

The rate of commercial lending growth dipped a little in February but remained above its five-year average. That dip was due only to a slower month for multifamily, with net lending secured against other commercial sectors again strong. This suggests that Q1 transaction volumes are likely to be robust.

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