Skip to main content

Lockdown and Brexit make for a bumpy Christmas

The UK is facing up to the possibility of a festive period dominated by COVID-19 restrictions and Brexit. We think that the England-wide lockdown will shrink the economy by 8% m/m in November and that the rebound in December will be muted. But an extension of the lockdown beyond 2nd December and a no deal Brexit are downside risks. We don’t consider the concerns over Brexit of US President-elect Biden, which may hinder UK-US trade talks, to be an extra downside risk as we have not been expecting a quick US-UK trade deal. The upside risk is that the positive reports about a vaccine, which have buoyed equity markets today, allow the economy to recover quicker in 2021 and 2022.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services


Get access