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UK Housing Market Data Response

UK Housing Market Data Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.)

The RICS survey showed that weaker demand has not yet fed through to falls in prices, but sales volumes are beginning to wilt. We think it is just a matter of time before prices follow activity lower.

11 August 2022

UK Housing Market Data Response

Halifax House Prices (Jul.)

Like Nationwide, Halifax reported that house price growth ground to a halt in July. As these house price indices are based on mortgage approvals, its possible that affordability rules put a temporary brake on prices. But equally it could be that the reversal in house price growth that we expect has already arrived.

5 August 2022

UK Housing Market Data Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul.)

The fourth consecutive decline in the headline construction PMI took the index below 50 for the first time since January 2021. While driven by an idiosyncratic drop in civil engineering activity, the upbeat new orders and future activity balances look wildly optimistic. Bank of England Drop-In (4th August, 10:30 ET/15:30 BST): Join our post-MPC, 20-minute online briefing to find out why we think UK rates will rise by more than most expect, despite a looming recession. Register now.

4 August 2022
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UK Housing Market Data Response

Nationwide House Prices (Jul.)

While the rise in the annual rate of house price growth from 10.7% in June to 11.0% in July will make most of the headlines that was driven by base effects. Instead, we think the main takeaway from the July figures is that house prices may already be stalling.

Bank of England Drop-In (4th August, 10:30 ET/15:30 BST): Join our post-MPC, 20-minute online briefing to find out why we think UK rates will rise by more than most expect, despite a looming recession. Register now

2 August 2022

UK Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Lending (Jun.)

Mortgage approvals slipped back to below 2019 levels in June supporting our view that higher interest rates will cause housing market activity to slump over the next two years. Indeed, further rises in Bank Rate and narrow interest margins on mortgage lending at present suggest that mortgage rates will continue to climb, causing demand to deteriorate further over the coming months.

Bank of England Drop-In (4th August, 10:30 ET/15:30 BST): Join our post-MPC, 20-minute online briefing to find out why we think UK rates will rise by more than most expect, despite a looming recession. Register now.

UK Housing Market Data Response

Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 2022)

The Q2 credit conditions survey shows that lenders will not loosen credit conditions to keep the house price boom going like they did in 2004-2007. Indeed, despite the fact demand is expected to slump in Q3, lenders say they will at least maintain, if not tighten, credit conditions.

UK Housing Market Data Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.)

There was an unmistakeable cooling in the housing market in June as the new buyer enquiries balance slipped further into negative territory. With mortgage rates continuing to rise and the economy on the brink of recession, a fall in house prices looks inevitable. UK Drop-In (20th July, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could high inflation tip the UK economy into recession? What impact will the race to succeed Boris Johnson have on the economic and policy outlook? Join our UK team for a 20-minute briefing to mark the publication of their Q2 UK Economic Outlook. Register now.

14 July 2022

UK Housing Market Data Response

Halifax House Prices (Jun.)

The substantial rise in the Halifax house price index in June was surprising given the softening in the Nationwide figures in the same month, and the deterioration in leading indicators of housing market activity. As such, the 18-year high in house price inflation of 13% y/y is likely to mark the peak before house prices start to decline next year.

7 July 2022
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