UK Housing

UK Housing Market Data Response

Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2021)

An ongoing improvement in credit availability may offset the increase in Bank Rate we expect in 2022. That offers support to our forecast that mortgage rates will remain low.

14 October 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep.)

The RICS survey suggests that the housing market has shrugged off the deterioration in sentiment about the broader economy so far. Demand stabilised at a high level in September while stock remained limited, so strong competition between buyers appears set to bid up house prices further in the near term.

14 October 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

Halifax House Prices (Sep.)

The large rise in the Halifax house price index in September suggests that we are right to think that robust demand and limited inventory will mean that prices record further gains after the stamp duty holiday ends.

7 October 2021

Our view

While the end of the stamp duty holiday in October has caused house price growth to ease, we suspect that the market will cool more gradually than most expect. Demand appears robust, supported by low mortgage rates, high household savings, and remote working. At the same time, homes for sale are in short supply. Together that suggests house prices will retain their momentum, leaving the consensus forecast that house prices will rise by 3.5% in 2022 too pessimistic. We expect house prices to rise by 5% next year.