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What to make of diverging unemployment rates in the UK and US

While the success of the UK’s job furlough scheme has prevented the unemployment rate from rising as far as it has in the US, an increase in UK unemployment has been delayed rather than avoided altogether. This is a key reason why we expect an impressive initial rebound in the UK economy to give way to a slower recovery and why we think that the UK recovery will lag behind the recovery in the US.

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