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UK Data Response

UK Data Response

S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (May)

The flash PMI survey for May suggests that economic growth has slowed to a crawl and that the risk of a recession has not gone away. Even so, weakness in the economy doesn’t seem to be filtering into an easing of price pressures. As a result, we think that interest rates still have much further to rise, from 1.00% now to 3.00% in 2023. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

24 May 2022

UK Data Response

Public Finances (Apr.)

The economic wind that has recently been blowing the public finances to undershoot forecasts adds more pressure on the Chancellor to launch in the coming weeks a big package of measures to help households cope with the cost of living crisis. But as the economic wind is already showing signs of becoming less favourable for the public finances, we think the support package is more likely to be small and targeted. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

24 May 2022

UK Data Response

Retail Sales (Apr.)

The unexpectedly strong rise in retail sales in April suggests the cost of living crisis hasn’t caused consumer spending to collapse and means the economy may have a little more momentum than we previously thought. It also supports our view that a weaker economy on its own won’t solve the issue of sky-high inflation and that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates further from 1.00% to 3.00%. ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

20 May 2022
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UK Data Response

Consumer Prices (Apr.)

If the rise in CPI inflation from 7.0% to a 40-year high of 9.0% in April wasn’t bad enough, inflation will probably rise further to 10% in October and will then fall back to the 2% target only slowly. That’s why we think the Bank of England has more work to do and will raise interest rates from 1.00% now to 3.00%.

18 May 2022

UK Data Response

Labour Market (Mar./Apr.)

Even though the economy contracted in March and may be on the brink of a recession, jobs growth strengthened, the unemployment rate fell to a 47-year low of 3.7% and wage growth accelerated. This supports our view that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates further than widely expected, from 1.00% now perhaps all the way to 3.00% next year.

17 May 2022

UK Data Response

GDP (Mar. & Q1)

It now seems likely that GDP will contract in Q2. And with the full hit of the cost of living crisis yet to be felt, the chances of a recession have just risen. Even so, with price pressures still strengthening, the Bank of England may have no choice but to add to the woes of households by raising interest rates further.

UK Data Response

Money & Credit (Mar.)

The decent increase in unsecured borrowing in March suggests that the plunge in consumer confidence and fall in real incomes have not caused consumer spending to collapse. This lends some support to our view that not only will the Bank of England raise interest rates from 0.75% to 1.00% at tomorrow’s policy meeting, but that it will continue to raise rates until they reach a peak of 3.00% next year. UK Drop-In (5th May 10:30 EDT/15:30 BST): Our UK Economics team are holding a special 20-minute briefing to discuss the latest MPC decision and what it means for their outlook for UK growth, inflation and BoE policy. Register now

UK Data Response

Public Finances (Mar.)

Total borrowing for the 2021/22 fiscal year overshot the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) March 2022 forecast by some £24bn, rounding out the third-worst year for the public finances on record. With the outlook for GDP growth and inflation deteriorating, we don’t expect the public finances to offer much help to the Chancellor in 2022/23. Even so, it is still likely that the Chancellor will announce a further fiscal support package to help households cope with the cost of living crisis at the Autumn Budget.

26 April 2022
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