UK

UK Data Response

UK Data Response

Money & Credit (Jun.)

The money and credit data showed that consumers were willing to take on more debt in June. However, with consumers accumulating excess savings at a faster pace, there were signs that the resurgence in virus cases may have triggered some consumer caution, which could weigh on the recovery.

29 July 2021

UK Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul.)

The second consecutive decline in the flash composite PMI in July came as no surprise to us as we expected the pace of the economic recovery to naturally slow after the big gains following the reopening of retail and hospitality. But there are also some signs that product and labour shortages are starting to restrain activity.

23 July 2021

UK Data Response

Retail Sales (Jun.)

The underlying trend in retail sales volumes is a bit weaker than the 0.5% m/m rise in June suggests. And other evidence indicates that the resurgence in the virus and the “pingdemic” may have taken some oomph out of the overall economic recovery in July.

23 July 2021
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UK Data Response

Public Finances (Jun.)

June’s public finances figures provided further evidence that the strong economic recovery is feeding through into lower government borrowing. So despite rising debt service costs, we still think that the economy can do more of the job in “fixing” the public finances than a fiscal tightening.

21 July 2021

UK Data Response

Labour Market (May/Jun.)

May’s figures paint a picture of a labour market well on its way to recovery and will further fuel concerns about labour shortages and the possible boost to inflation from higher wage growth. But past revisions to the data suggest there is still slack in the jobs market. We think that a sustained rise in pay growth won’t take place until 2023 and that an interest rate rise is further away than the financial markets think.

15 July 2021

UK Data Response

Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The rise in CPI inflation from 2.1% in May to 2.5% in June was smaller than the leap in US inflation to 5.4% released yesterday, but we think the gap between the two will shrink as inflation in the UK climbs to around 4.0% by the end of the year. That said, as we suspect that the spike in UK inflation will be short-lived, we don’t expect the Bank of England to tighten policy anytime soon.

14 July 2021

UK Data Response

Monthly GDP & International Trade (May)

The easing in the pace of the economic recovery in May suggests that GDP is now more likely to return to the February 2020 pre-pandemic peak in October rather than in August. The bigger point, though, is that the recovery so far has been faster than most imagined possible six or 12 months ago. And the economy may yet surprise most forecasters again by emerging from the pandemic without much scarring.

9 July 2021

UK Data Response

GDP (Q1 Final)

The small downward revision to Q1 GDP growth probably won’t stop the economy from rising back to its pre-pandemic peak in the coming months. And the larger-than-expected rebound in the household saving rate increases the potential for faster rises in GDP further ahead.

30 June 2021
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