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This service provides detailed analysis and independent forecasts for the UK economy and financial markets, offering both rapid responses to new data and developments, and more in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future developments.

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Key Forecasts

Main Economic & Market Forecasts

Latest

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

2024

2025

2026

GDP (%q/q/y/y)

-0.3(-0.2)

0.3(-0.1)

0.3(0.1)

0.4(0.6)

0.4(1.4)

0.4(1.5)

0.3(1.6)

0.3(1.5)

0.3(1.4)

0.5

1.5

1.5

CPI Inflation (%)

3.4 (Feb)

3.4

1.1

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.7

1.1

1.3

1.4

0.9

1.5

Unemp Rate (%)

3.9 (Jan)

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.0

Bank Rate* (%)

5.25

5.25

5.00

4.50

4.00

3.50

3.00

3.00

3.00

4.00

3.00

3.00

QE Stock* (£bn)

730

730

695

655

655

620

590

555

555

655

555

500

10-yr Gilt* (%)

3.96

3.95

3.70

3.50

3.25

3.25

3.25

3.25

3.25

3.25

3.25

3.00

$/£*

1.26

1.26

1.25

1.23

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

1.30

1.22

1.30

1.30

€/£*

1.17

1.17

1.15

1.13

1.11

1.11

1.12

1.13

1.13

1.11

1.13

1.13

Sources: Capital Economics, Refinitiv. * End period.

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