UK Commercial Property
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UK Commercial Property

UK Commercial Property Update

UK Commercial Property Update

Industrial yield falls set to slow

The industrial sector had its best year in over three decades in 2021 as demand soared and supply struggled to keep up. Although we expect the sector to perform well again this year, we don’t think that yields can continue to fall at the rate seen in 2021.

20 January 2022

UK Commercial Property Update

Estimating the carbon transition risk to property values

Real estate potentially has a significant role to play in helping achieve ambitious climate targets. We have estimated the size of the risks in the transition to net zero for the commercial property markets that we cover. This risk varies widely across markets and sectors, but suggests that the costs, at less than 8% of current capital values, are significant but not insurmountable. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this European Commercial Property Update to clients of our UK and US Commercial Property services.

14 January 2022

UK Commercial Property Update

Which assets can provide the best inflation protection?

Recent data have reinforced concerns about inflation risks in the UK. We remain of the view that property investments provide only limited long-term protection against higher prices, but of the individual asset types, we think industrial and residential are best placed to weather any surge. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Commercial Property Update to clients of our UK Housing Service.

14 January 2022
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UK Commercial Property Update

Returns to cool significantly in 2022

The performance of commercial property exceeded expectations in 2021, with a particularly strong contribution from the industrial sector. But we don’t think that this momentum will last into this year, with high inflation and four interest rate hikes in 2022 expected to weigh on the outlook.

7 January 2022

UK Commercial Property Update

No Christmas cheer for shopping centres

The recent sale of a 25% share of the Bluewater shopping centre has provided further evidence of the slump in retail values. And while there are signs that the worst of the correction may now be over, we don’t think that a turnaround is likely soon.

24 December 2021

UK Commercial Property Update

Hotel occupancy will continue to struggle in 2022

International travel restrictions and domestic containment measures have dealt the hotel sector a massive blow over the last two years. The outlook for the sector is more positive, but a slow relaxation of restrictions, tourist hesitancy and reduced business travel mean that it is unlikely that the sector will recover fully in 2022.

22 December 2021

UK Commercial Property Update

US to outperform in 2022 before rate rises curb returns

The rapid bounce-back in the US economy along with still-loose monetary policy will drive continued strong performance in real estate in 2022, when we expect returns to exceed 12%. That would see the US outperform the UK and euro-zone by 5%-pts and 3%-pts respectively. We then expect returns to fall back to around 5% in 2023, roughly matching the other two markets. But with interest rate rises likely to impact US valuations sooner, we forecast the US to underperform by 1.5%-2%-pts p.a. in 2024-26. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this US Commercial Property Update to clients of our European and UK Commercial Property Services. Note: Central Bank Drop-In – The Fed, ECB and BoE are just some of the key central bank decisions expected in this packed week of meetings. Neil Shearing and a special panel of our chief economists will sift through the outcomes on Thursday, 16th December at 11:00 ET/16:00 GMT and discuss the monetary policy outlook for 2022.

UK Commercial Property Update

Investment expected to edge higher in 2022

Investment activity has bounced back sharply after the initial COVID-19 shock and is on track to hit a three-year high in 2021. But we expect more modest growth in 2022 as softer economic activity and structural factors in some sectors weigh on transactions. Note: Central Bank Drop-In – The Fed, ECB and BoE are just some of the key central bank decisions expected in this packed week of meetings. Neil Shearing and a special panel of our chief economists will sift through the outcomes on Thursday, 16th December at 11:00 ET/16:00 GMT and discuss the monetary policy outlook for 2022.

15 December 2021
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