UK Commercial Property

UK Commercial Property

UK Commercial Property Update

Will COVID-19 shift real estate out of town?

With workers spending more time away from city centres, some expected that out-of-town offices could swing back into fashion. It is still early, but from the UK data, the evidence suggests that it is suburban retail, not offices, that is benefiting most from the home-working revolution.

15 October 2021

UK Housing Market Data Response

Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2021)

An ongoing improvement in credit availability may offset the increase in Bank Rate we expect in 2022. That offers support to our forecast that mortgage rates will remain low.

14 October 2021

UK Commercial Property Update

What do the latest UK jobs data tell us?

UK employment has recovered strongly in recent quarters and is set to see further growth into 2022. This will be good news for UK offices, especially in regional cities. But with occupiers set to look beyond headcount when making their space decisions, we don’t think it will bring a turnaround in the sector.

7 October 2021

Our view

There has been no sign of a let up in the UK commercial property upturn this summer and returns are likely to be strong in 2021, but this may be as good as it gets in this recovery cycle. With the rental outlook still fragile outside industrial and limited scope for further yield falls, we expect only modest growth in capital values into the medium term. Office and retail face ongoing structural challenges, leaving industrial as the clear lead sector, though even here growth is expected to slow.