Implications of more extreme weather events

Climate change is already making extreme weather events more frequent and more intense, which will worsen as the planet warms further. This is most likely to cause short-term disruptions to economic growth in some EMs. What’s more, it could result in more volatile inflation in all economies if internationally traded commodities are affected more frequently.
Justin Chaloner Senior Economist
Continue reading

More from The Long Run

Long Run Update

Our climate change assumptions

Ahead of publishing our latest Long-Term Outlook next month, this Update sets out the assumptions we have made in our long term forecasts about both climate change and the efforts to prevent it.

13 January 2022

Long Run Update

Ongoing pandemic to slow migration’s return to normal

The continued threat of new virus waves, and therefore fresh rounds of travel restrictions, suggests that global migration flows could remain subdued for a while yet. However, we continue to doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact on migration flows.

16 December 2021

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Nov.)

Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 23rd November 2021. A more detailed explanation of our views can be found in our annual Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

25 November 2021

More from Justin Chaloner

Long Run Update

Implications of living with COVID

Many countries are increasingly well-placed to ‘live with COVID’ and will be able to avoid the need for occasional lockdowns. However, this requires reaching and maintaining a high level of immunity in the community and there is a risk that this will be out of reach for the poorest economies.

11 August 2021

Long Run Update

The implications of the pandemic decline in births

Birth rates have fallen in several advanced economies during the pandemic. Although we think that fertility rates will bounce back and there won’t be material long-term impacts, this presents a small downside risk to some of our long run forecasts for these advanced economies and may have implications for future policymaking.

23 July 2021

Long Run Update

Higher female participation to help India outperform

There is typically more scope for female participation rates to rise and boost labour supply in EMs. This is particularly so in India and is one reason why we expect its economy to outperform in the long run.

19 May 2021
↑ Back to top