The Long Run

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Nov.)

Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 23rd November 2021. A more detailed explanation of our views can be found in our annual Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

25 November 2021

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Oct.)

Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 22nd October 2021. A more detailed explanation of our views can be found in our annual Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

22 October 2021

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Sep.)

Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 27th September 2021. A more detailed explanation of our views can be found in our annual Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

29 September 2021
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Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Aug.)

Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 20th August 2021. A more detailed explanation of our views can be found in our annual Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

24 August 2021

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Jul. 2021)

While emerging market equities have generally struggled since the previous edition of our Long Run Returns Monitor was published, most other asset classes have fared reasonably well. Most notably, government bond yields have fallen across the board, developed market real estate investment trusts (REITs) have made strong gains, and equities at the global level have also risen, buoyed by the strength of the US stock market. The key upshot is that the new higher starting points for many asset classes mean that our projected returns from them over the next decade or so are generally a bit less positive than they were roughly a month ago. We continue to forecast that the returns from bonds will be meagre, those from equities and REITs reasonable rather than stellar, and those from commodities poor.

30 July 2021

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Jun. 2021)

Given that the moves in most financial markets since the previous editionof our Long Run Returns Monitor have been fairly small–at least for the period as a whole –the returns that we are projecting from most assets between now and the end of 2030 have changed only marginally. That said, the higher starting points that have resulted from their rallies in recent weeks mean that we are projecting somewhat weaker returns from energy commodities, Latin American equities and developed markets (DM) REITs. Meanwhile, the stumble in industrial and precious metals of late means that our projected returns from them are now a little less downbeat.

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (May 2021)

Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides an updated set of projections for the returns from major asset classes over the next few decades. Given that the period since the previous edition of this document has been a fairly quiet one for financial markets, our latest projections have changed only slightly. We continue to think that the returns from bonds over the next ten years or so will be meagre, those from global equities and DM REITs reasonable, but that those from commodities will be deeply negative.

27 May 2021

Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Apr. 2021)

Following their sharp rises earlier on in the year, government bond yields have steadied over the past few weeks. Perhaps reflecting this, both global equities and developed market (DM) REITs have generally rallied sharply since the previous edition of the Long Run Returns Monitor was published in early March. Given that our forecasts for where most equity and REIT indices will end 2030 are little changed, their further recent climb means that our projections for returns from these asset classes between now and then have become a bit less positive. However, the big picture is that, in most cases, our projections have not changed a great deal from those detailed in our Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook. We think that that the returns from most “risky” assets will fall short of those seen over the past decade, but will still beat those from “safe” ones by a wide margin. The exception to this is industrial commodities, for which we forecast that returns will be quite poor.

23 April 2021
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